Publications

According to the Central Balance Sheet Data Office integrated database (CBI), 2021 saw a notable recovery in the economic and financial position of most firms, partially reversing the previous year’s COVID-19-related downturn. This improvement was more pronounced in the industries hardest hit by this crisis. Meanwhile, data from the Central Balance Sheet Data Office Quarterly Survey (CBQ), which allow more recent developments to be analysed, reveal that corporate profits for the sample overall continued growing at a brisk pace in the first three quarters of 2022, albeit highly unevenly across sectors. This further bolstered the economic and financial position of most of the firms in the sample. Nonetheless, the data referring only to Q3 show a loss of momentum in corporate profits, reflecting the slowdown in economic activity. This article includes a box analysing recent profit margin developments, using two different approaches. The box concludes that, thanks to the recovery in ordinary profits, the gross value added margin (which measures the proportion of this surplus retained by firms after personnel costs) continued to rise in 2022 for the CBQ overall, to stand at levels similar to the pre-pandemic figures. This is compatible with a slight contraction in the margin on sales, which is calculated as the ratio of gross operating profit to sales and enables analysis of the extent to which firms have been able to pass rising production costs through to their customers.

According to the Bank Lending Survey, in 2022 Q3 credit standards and loan terms and conditions tightened across the board, both in Spain and in the euro area as a whole, with the loans to households for house purchase segment seeing the most pronounced tightening. Meanwhile, loan applications in virtually all the categories declined in both areas. These developments unfolded against a backdrop of higher risks associated with the deterioration in the economic outlook and of monetary policy normalisation, which is translating into an increase in the cost of funds. This setting has also affected expectations for Q4, with banks expecting the contraction in loan supply to continue and demand to decline in all the segments analysed.

This article describes the different consumer credit crowdfunding platform models that are currently operating in Spain and analyses their development and their main characteristics by drawing on granular data publicly available from two of the platforms operating in Spain. The article shows that, while the volume of financing granted by this type of platform has grown at a considerable pace in recent years, its share of the total remains very small compared with bank lending figures. The evidence presented also shows that the risk profile of the borrowers who access this financing is significantly higher than that of those borrowing from credit institutions.

The Central Balance Sheet Data Office Quarterly Survey data show that ordinary profit grew sharply in 2022 H1, with average profitability levels close to those of 2019. These positive economic developments translated into an improvement in the ability to repay corporate debt. For their part, average liquidity ratios declined, reversing the increase recorded following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In any event, a more detailed analysis evidences a less favourable trend for certain groups of firms than that inferred from aggregate data. In particular, the article includes a box showing signs of deterioration in the economic and financial situation of some of the firms most exposed to the rise in energy prices. Specifically, firms whose activity has recovered less in the recent period because they have not benefited as much from the lifting of the pandemic-related restrictions on movement would be in this situation.

This article presents the main results of the Survey of Household Finances 2020, which reflect the financial position of Spanish households at end-2020. These results are of particular interest, since they allow for overall analysis of the income, assets, debt and spending of Spanish households in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The article also describes the key changes compared with the last edition of the survey, referring to 2017.

In 2022 to date there has been a tightening of financing conditions for firms and households, with a strong rise in the cost of corporate debt issuance and a contraction in the supply of loans. However, the pass-through of market interest rates to bank lending interest rates appears to be somewhat slower than in other historical bouts of interest rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the flow of new funding raised by households and firms and their outstanding debt have increased moderately or remained stable. Lending by deposit institutions (DIs) for non-financial business activities declined in 2022 Q1, more than offsetting the increase in the balance of loans for house purchase, while in April and May their joint performance was moderately expansionary. Since early 2022 and despite the worsening of the macro-financial environment, the credit quality of the DIs’ portfolio has continued to improve in general, except in the case of financing allocated to the sectors most affected by the pandemic, as well as in Official Credit Institute (ICO)-backed loans as a whole. The materialisation of adverse macro-financial scenarios might lead to less buoyancy in the volume of bank lending and the deterioration of its quality in the coming quarters.

According to the Bank Lending Survey, during 2022 Q2 credit standards and credit terms and conditions tightened slightly, across all market segments, both in Spain and in the euro area. Meanwhile, loan applications declined or rose more moderately in both areas, in almost all segments. All this, against a backdrop of growing uncertainty (with a perception of increased risk) and monetary policy normalisation. This setting has also affected expectations for Q3, with banks expecting the contraction in credit supply to continue and demand to decline in almost all the segments analysed.

The Central Balance Sheet Data Office Quarterly Survey (CBQ) data show that corporate earnings and activity continued to recover in 2022 Q1. Against this background, average profitability levels increased relative to the same period in 2021, but remained below pre-pandemic values. The debt of the sample firms taken as a whole grew in 2022 Q1 compared with a year earlier, leading to a slightly higher average debt-to-asset ratio. Conversely, the average ratio of debt to ordinary earnings, which proxies repayment capacity, fell, helped by the recovery in earnings. The increase in ordinary profit also enabled the average interest coverage ratio to continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021 on account of the rise in financial costs associated with the higher debt. This article includes a box analysing changes in the profit margins of the CBQ firms during the last year, an important question in the current setting of sharp cost increases. For the median firm in the sample, the profit margin has remained virtually unchanged. However, there is a high level of heterogeneity, not only across sectors, but also within each sector. The differences in the course of this variable are attributable to certain characteristics, such as the growth in costs, firms’ financial position and the buoyancy of their activity.

The Financial Accounts of the Spanish Economy show that the financial situation of households and non-financial corporations strengthened in 2021. Unlike in 2020, households increased their outstanding debt in the form of bank loans, mainly loans for house purchase, in keeping with the real estate market’s greater buoyancy. However, given that household income grew more, their debt-to-income ratio fell by 1.6 percentage points to 91.9%. This remains, however, above its 2019 level. Non-financial corporations’ debt-to-GDP ratio also fell in 2021 (by 4.3 percentage points, to 80%). This was largely due to GDP growth, as their consolidated debt increased slightly. Turning to financial asset investment decisions, households continued the trend of recent years of increasing their holdings of bank deposits and investment fund shares or units, while – in keeping with the recovery in business activity and with lower concern for liquidity risks, respectively – firms granted a higher volume of trade finance and accumulated fewer liquid assets.

On balance of payments statistics, in 2021 Spain’s net lending amounted to 1.8% of GDP (1.2% in 2020). This increase mainly reflected the partial recovery in the travel surplus, thanks to the improvement in the epidemiological situation prompted by the headway in vaccination, and the widening of the capital account surplus, boosted by the credits corresponding to Next Generation EU. This countered the deterioration in the goods deficit, against the backdrop of the rising energy bill. Meanwhile, Spain’s negative net international investment position decreased significantly (to 70.4% of GDP, its lowest level since 2006), thanks to the positive financial transactions with the rest of the world and, to a greater degree, GDP growth and the increase in value of external financial assets. Conversely, Spain’s gross external debt reached another all-time high (€2,329 billion) due to the assumption of new liabilities, particularly by general government and the Banco de España. However, it fell as a percentage of GDP thanks to economic growth.

This article is a summary of the methodology proposed by Gonzalez-Perez (2021) for estimation of a volatility index for an asset portfolio on which no options have been issued. The methodology allows volatility indices to be constructed for personalised portfolios, using the options issued on the individual shares and a benchmark portfolio that provides information on the correlation risk premium between the assets in the portfolio concerned. This methodology and a benchmark portfolio representing the Spanish stock market (IBEX 35) are used to estimate a volatility index for the Spanish banking sector. The methodology proposed allows for adjustment of the benchmark portfolio according to the framework of uncertainty desired.
A comparison between this sectoral volatility index and that of the Spanish stock market overall and other key indices shows that falls in bank share prices have a particularly strong correlation with growth in banking sector uncertainty, while share price rallies have a correlation with lower uncertainty either on the Spanish equity market or in the banking sector. Moreover, there is a persistent and positive volatility spread between the Spanish stock market and the banking sector. The fact that the Spanish banking sector has become more integrated following the global financial crisis, together with the gradual increase in correlation between bank portfolios, helps to explain this. In February 2022 this spread stood at around 20%. The Spanish banking sector volatility index moves parallel to its European equivalent, with an average historical spread of around 6%. Lastly, a significantly stronger correlation is found between the uncertainty priced into the banking sector and economic policy uncertainty than between the latter and the uncertainty priced into the market. These findings confirm that a measure of banking sector volatility provides important information, in addition to that provided by a measure of market volatility, which is extremely useful for monitoring and forecasting risk and returns in the Spanish banking sector.

The latest SAFE results show that the activity of Spanish SMEs continued to grow in the period from October 2021 to March 2022, albeit at a slower pace than six months earlier. The rise in costs prompted a deterioration in profits for most of these firms. Access to external finance is not a factor of concern for most SMEs; indeed, the indicator of obstacles to obtaining bank loans has held at very low values. However, the results show an interruption of the trend of improving availability of bank loans during the period analysed, linked to the SMEs’ pessimistic perception of the general economic environment. In addition, a significant percentage of SMEs reported an increase in financing costs. Against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty generated, among other factors, by the economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine, overall the respondent firms anticipated a deterioration in access to finance for the period April-September 2022.

The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on the economy and affected Spanish businesses’ economic and financial situation, albeit with high sectoral heterogeneity. This article analyses how this crisis has affected business solvency and demographics in Spain by means of various indicators. The analysis shows that to date this shock has had a very moderate impact compared with previous crises, largely thanks to the measures deployed by the economic authorities to mitigate its effects. However, there are some latent risks that could materialise, especially if the economic recovery proves to be less robust than anticipated.

The tax incentive enjoyed by workplace pension schemes could encourage participants to increase their total savings or, alternatively, crowd out savings that would have materialised in other financial vehicles in the absence of this incentive. This article uses data from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances to estimate the additional savings generated by this type of scheme. To this end, the financial position of workplace pension scheme participants is compared to that of a group of workers of similar ages, with similar educational attainment levels and occupations, but who do not participate in such schemes. Once the comparable group is constructed, it can be seen that, on average, each euro saved in workplace pension schemes increases private savings by around 66 cents. This is the ratio of the difference in average net wealth between participants and their comparable group (€13,600) to the average amount accumulated in pension schemes (€20,600). Once adjusted for the fact that contributions are tax-exempt, the additional savings generated amount to around 31 cents for every euro contributed, calculated as the ratio of the €6,500 difference in tax-relief-adjusted wealth between the two groups to the average amount accumulated in workplace pension schemes.

With the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, the ECB’s Governing Council modified the conditions of the TLTRO III, aiming to facilitate the flow of bank credit to the real economy. The new conditions encouraged an unprecedented level of take-up of the Eurosystem’s refinancing operations by credit institutions. In the case of Spain, all participating banks met the eligible net lending target (that is, loans to non-financial corporations and households, except loans to households for house purchases) established for the period March 2020 to March 2021. To ascertain the impact on banks’ balance sheets of this huge liquidity injection via TLTRO III, this article identifies four strategies – lending, holding reserves at the Banco de España, purchase of government debt and substitution for market funding – that banks could implement after applying for TLTRO III funding. The conclusion drawn is that there is a significant relationship between participation in TLTRO III and eligible lending and reserve holding strategies.

According to the Bank Lending Survey, during 2022 Q1 credit standards in business lending tightened both in Spain and in the euro area as a whole, against a backdrop of greater concern for the risks associated with the impact of the energy crisis and, more recently, the war in Ukraine. There were no significant changes in credit standards in Spain in the two household lending segments. Loan applications continued to increase moderately in both areas, across almost all segments. For Q2, supply is expected to contract, more intensely in business lending, both in Spain and in the euro area, in a setting of greater uncertainty associated with the effects of the war in Ukraine. Lastly, as regards the non-standard monetary policy measures of the European Central Bank (ECB), banks expect the favourable effects on their financial position and lending policy to diminish over the coming months, reversing their sign in some cases, against a background of gradual monetary policy normalisation.

Data from the Central Balance Sheet Data Office Quarterly Survey (CBQ) show that corporate earnings and activity increased significantly in 2021. However, the recovery was dampened in Q4 at the firms most exposed to rising energy costs. Against this background, average profitability levels rose significantly compared with 2020, albeit remaining below pre-pandemic values. The overall debt of the sample firms grew in 2021, leading to a slight increase in the average debt-to-assets ratio. Conversely, the average ratio of debt to ordinary earnings, which proxies repayment capacity, fell, helped by the recovery in corporate earnings. The average interest coverage ratio also decreased. This was due to both the lower cost of outstanding debt and higher ordinary earnings. Following the sharp rise in the previous year, liquidity ratios declined at most firms and sectors, against a less uncertain backdrop. The article includes a box analysing recent developments in the degree of financial vulnerability of CBQ firms. It shows that, after the severe downturn in 2020, there was a clear improvement in 2021. However, they remained more financially vulnerable than in 2019.

Since summer 2020, resident banks’ lending to non-financial corporations has been sluggish. In the wake of the impact of the health crisis, this has been against a backdrop of weak demand, a relatively steady supply of bank lending and an increase in financing obtained through issuance of debt securities. An analysis drawing on the granular information both of firms and banks confirms that this loss of momentum in bank lending is explained essentially by demand factors. In particular, there are signs that some firms have been using part of the liquidity buffers they built up in 2020, and that large corporations have replaced part of their bank lending with issuance of debt securities. The analysis also suggests that supply factors linked to the amount of capital available to banks are not an important factor in explaining the weakness of lending to non-financial corporations during the period considered.

According to the Bank Lending Survey, during 2021 Q4 credit standards tightened slightly in Spain, while remaining virtually unchanged in most segments in the euro area. The terms and conditions applied to new loans did not change significantly in either of the two areas, the sole exception being those applied in Spain to the loans to households for house purchase segment, which eased slightly. Loan applications increased moderately in both Spain and the euro area, across almost all segments, in keeping with the recovery in economic activity.