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14th EMERGING MARKETS WORKSHOP. SPILLOVERS AND SPILLBACKS FROM MAJOR TRANSITIONS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

1718 November 2016

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The 14th Emerging Market Workshop will take place on 17-18 November 2016 in Madrid, Spain, at the Banco de España headquarters. This year, the EMW will take a view on the evolving nature of the interconnections between advanced and emerging markets economies, in the light of a number of major economic transitions that are taking place in the global economy (China’s transition to a new growth model, the end of the commodities supercycle, or the slow normalization of monetary policy in the US). The Conference is restricted to researchers of central banks and international financial institutions.

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Presentations

17 November 2016
 
08.45 - 09.00
Registration
09.00 - 09.15
Opening Remarks

Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois File PDF: Opens in a new window (250 KB) (Banco de España)

09.15 - 10.30
Keynote speech:

Managing Capital Flows File PDF: Opens in a new window (228 KB) 
(Poonam Gupta, The World Bank)

10.30 - 11.00
Coffee break
11.00 - 13.00
Session I: The New Normal and global spillovers

Chair: Iikka Korhonen (BOFIT)

Global disequilibria: A stock perspective File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB)Paper. File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB)
(Ángel Estrada and Francesca Viani, Banco de España)
Lead off discussantRúben Silva Branco File PDF: Opens in a new window (245 KB) (Banco de Portugal)

Global financial spillovers: A non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB) 
(Bertrand Candelon, Laurent Ferrara and Marc Joëts, Banque de France)
Lead off discussantAlessandro Galesi File PDF: Opens in a new window (368 KB) (Banco de España)

ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's Global Macroeconomic Model for Spillover Analysis File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB) 
(Alistair Dieppe, Georgios Georgiadis, Martino Ricci, Ine Van Robays, Björn van Roye, European Central Bank)
Lead off discussantDaniel Santabárbara File PDF: Opens in a new window (134 KB) (Banco de España)

13.00 - 14.30
Lunch
14.30 - 15.50
Session II: Spillovers from ECB’s monetary policy

Chair: Diego Saravia (Banco de Chile)

Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from Euro Area monetary policy File PDF: Opens in a new window (2 MB)Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (586 KB)
(Martin Feldkircher, Thomas Gruber (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) and Florian Huber, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)
Lead off discussantAxel Jochem File PDF: Opens in a new window (126 KB) (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Spillovers of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy on CESEE economies. File PDF: Opens in a new window (402 KB) PaperFile PDF: Opens in a new window (676 KB) 
(Alessio Ciarlone and Andrea Colabella, Banca d´Italia)
Lead off discussant: Urszula Szczerbowicz File PDF: Opens in a new window (55 KB) (Banque de France)

15.50 - 16.10
Coffee break
16.10 - 17.30
Session III: Spillovers from the Fed’s monetary policy

Chair: Ángel Estrada (Banco de España)

Portfolio Investment Response to US Monetary Policy Announcements: an event study analysis using high frequency data from Mexico File PDF: Opens in a new window (460 KB) 
(Marco A. Hernández, Banco de México)
Lead off discussantSilvia Albrizio File PDF: Opens in a new window (161 KB) (Banco de España)

US Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates File PDF: Opens in a new window (793 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB).
 (Elias Albagli, Danilo Leiva-Leon and Diego Saravia, Banco de Chile)
Lead off discussant: Luis Molina File PDF: Opens in a new window (387 KB) (Banco de España)

18 November 2016
 
09.00 - 11.00
Session IV: The financial channel

Chair: Peter Backe (OENB)

What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies File PDF: Opens in a new window (587 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (414 KB).
(Diana Ayala, International Monetary Fund, Milan Nedeljkovic, National Bank of Serbia, and Christian Saborowski, International Monetary Fund)
Lead off discussant: Salim Dehmej File PPT: Opens in a new window (1 MB) (Bank Al-Maghrib)

Macroprudential policies, capital flows and the structure of the banking sector File PDF: Opens in a new window (525 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (446 KB).
(John Beirne, European Central Bank and Christian Friedrich, Bank of Canada)
Lead off discussantJosé María Serena File PDF: Opens in a new window (311 KB) (Banco de España)

Cyclicality of Bank Liquidity Creation in Russia File PDF: Opens in a new window (451 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (450 KB)
(Zuzana Fungáčová, BOFIT)
Lead off discussant: Aleksey Porshakov File PDF: Opens in a new window (407 KB) (Bank of Russia)

11.00 - 11.20
Coffee break
11.20 - 12.40
Session V: The trade channel

Chair: Javier Vallés (Banco de España)

Final Destination: China File PDF: Opens in a new window (953 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (1 MB) 
(Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini, Banca d´Italia)
Lead off discussant: Enrica di Stefano (Banca d´Italia)

Tailwinds from the East: How has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices? File PDF: Opens in a new window (210 KB). Paper File PDF: Opens in a new window (304 KB)
(John Lewis and Jumana Saleheen, Bank of England)
Lead off discussantIván Kataryniuk File PDF: Opens in a new window (140 KB) (Banco de España)

12.40 - 13.55
Keynote speech: Rethinking the effects of financial globalization

Jaume Ventura File PDF: Opens in a new window (548 KB) (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

14.00 - 16.00
Farewell lunch