Publications

En este trabajo se estudia la evolución reciente del endeudamiento de los hogares españoles. Para ello se realiza, en primer lugar, un análisis descriptivo de la situación patrimonial de las familias españolas que incluye una comparación internacional y una estimación de la carga financiera asociada a la deuda. Además, se estima un modelo de corrección del error (uniecuacional) que permite identificar los principales factores explicativos del crecimiento del endeudamiento. De acuerdo con los resultados, una parte importante de dicho crecimiento tiene carácter estructural, en la medida en que su evolución es coherente con el crecimiento de la renta, del empleo y con la mayor estabilidad macroeconómica y menor coste de la financiación asociados a la participación de España en la UEM. Asimismo, la revalorización experimentada por la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias ha desempeñado un papel relevante en la evolución reciente de sus pasivos. No obstante, los niveles de deuda más elevados suponen una mayor exposición de los hogares españoles ante posibles shocks adversos, que podría ser relativamente más acusada en algunos grupos de población concretos.

This paper examines financial pressure facing Spanish companies. A number of stylised facts regarding the financial performance and financing decisions of Spanish firms are first presented for the period 1985-2000 using repeated annual cross-sections of around 5,000 manufacturing and retail firms. (i) In periods of general financial fragility, most notably during the recession of 1993, the experience of the most financially vulnerable companies is even more distressed than movements in aggregate or average figures would suggest (ii) the burden of borrowing costs has declined for most companies in the mid-/late-1990s, but particularly for those at the top of the distribution (iii) the cross-sectional distribution of indebtedness across firms has remained remarkably stable but (iv) this conceals significant variation in debt ratios for individual firms.
Using panel data methods, the effects of financial pressure associated with servicing debt on a number of aspects of corporate behaviour are then examined, namely fixed investment, employment (both permanent and temporary), inventories and dividend policies. Our results quantify the responsiveness of each of these responses to financial pressure experienced by firms in Spain. Quantitatively large effects of financial pressure on investment and employment are estimated, although these work through more quickly in the case of fixed investment. The effects on employment are found to be larger and work through more quickly in the case of temporary than permanent employment. We also find significant effects on inventory investment and dividend payments confirming these additional mechanisms of adjustment by companies in Spain in response to financial pressure.

This paper examines the adjustment of inventories by firms in the UK and Spain. A widely-held view—but one which has not found much support in previous studies of inventories— is that a key channel for monetary policy is through influencing inventory accumulation. Using a large company-level panel dataset for both countries, significant effects associated with borrowing costs on inventories are estimated. Financial effects associated with liquidity and the borrowing ratio are estimated to be weaker in Spain than in the UK. Since the Spanish financial system is more clearly bank-based, this is interpreted as contrary to the ‘bank-dependence hypothesis’.

The paper confronts a key implication of the precautionary model of saving/consumption, using micro-data on British households. The results provide support for the key proposition that job insecurity affects consumption. A one standard deviation increase in unemployment risk for the head of household is estimated to reduce consumption by 2.7 per cent. This effect is greater for the young, those without non-labour income and manual workers—for whom precautionary effects might be expected to be stronger a priori. Consumer durables purchases are also found to be inversely related to unemployment risk.

 This paper looks at the value generated to shareholders by the announcement of mergers and acquisitions involving firms in the European Union over the period 1998-2000. Target firm shareholders receive on average a statistically significant excess return of 9% in a onemonth window centered on the announcement date. Acquirers’ excess returns are null on average. When distinguishing in terms of the geographical and sectoral dimensions of the merger deals, our main finding is that mergers in industries that had been previously undergovernment control or that are still heavily regulated generate lower value than M&A announcements in unregulated industries. This low value creation in regulated industries becomes significantly negative when the merger involved two firms from different countries and was primarily due to the lower positive return that shareholders of the target firm enjoyed upon the announcement of the merger. This evidence is consistent with the existence of obstacles (such as cultural, legal, or transaction barriers) to the successful conclusion of this type of transaction, which decrease the probability that the merger will actually be completed as announced and, therefore, reduce its expected value.

This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a two-country model with asymmetric shocks. Agents insure against risk through the exchange of Arrow- Debreu securities. Although central banks commit to the policy that maximizes domestic welfare, this does not lead to price stability. In an attempt to improve their country’s terms of trade of securities, central banks may choose an inflationary policy rule in good states. If both central banks do so, the effects on the terms of trade wash out, leaving both countries worse off. Countries facing asymmetric shocks may therefore gain from monetary cooperation.

In this paper, we present a monetary policy game in which the central bank has a private forecast of supply and demand shocks. The public needs to form its inflationary expectations and can make use of central bank announcements. However, because of the credibility problem that the central bank faces, the public will not believe a precise announcement. By extending the arrangement proposed by Garfinkel and Oh (1995) to a model that includes private information about both demand and supply shocks, we investigate the feasibility of making imprecise credible announcements concerning the rate of inflation.

A pesar de la enorme importancia del sector servicios de mercado en el conjunto de la economía nacional, la información estadística coyuntural de esta rama se encuentra en clara desventaja con respecto a la industria o a la construcción. En efecto, mientras que el sector secundario dispone de indicadores coyunturales representativos del conjunto de sus ramas, no existen estadísticas globales sobre los servicios de mercado, por lo que el análisis coyuntural debe basarse en un conjunto de indicadores disperso y heterogéneo, que deja de lado importantes parcelas de la actividad de los servicios.
El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar el método seguido para elaborar un indicador sintético para los servicios de mercado, útil para el seguimiento de la evolución a corto plazo de esta rama de actividad. El indicador elaborado posee un carácter integral, de modo que todas las actividades están representadas. Asimismo, permite un análisis coherente de las actividades que integran los servicios con la evolución de la rama en su conjunto. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que este indicador es una herramienta muy útil en el seguimiento coyuntural de los servicios de mercado, que, además, ofrece información desagregada de las actividades del sector que no ofrecen las cuentas nacionales trimestrales.

Este trabajo estudia los futuros sobre acciones desde una perspectiva centrada en las implicaciones que cabe esperar de su introducción sobre la organización de los mercados de renta variable. El contexto que motiva este estudio lo conforman la “revolución” que ha rodeado en Estados Unidos a la autorización para lanzar futuros sobre acciones y el éxito que este producto ha cosechado en el mercado español MEFF. En el trabajo se procede a un examen detenido de los rasgos definitorios del producto, de entre los que destacan, por comparación con el contado, su apalancamiento implícito, la liquidación a plazo y la separación entre la exposición a los rendimientos económicos y la asunción de derechos políticos. El examen del éxito de la versión española del producto revela que buena parte de su atractivo ha descansado, sin embargo, en la existencia de una demanda forzada por restricciones de inversión vinculantes para ciertos inversores. Los futuros sobre acciones han permitido eludirlas. No obstante, también se argumenta que la introducción de futuros sobre acciones constituye un hecho con un impacto potencial notable sobre los mercados de renta variable, especialmente en Estados Unidos. En este país, el mandato de autorización de futuros sobre acciones por parte del Congreso constituye una medida que superpone los ámbitos regulatorios de la SEC y la CFTC y, en consecuencia, se interpreta como un paso en la normalización del confuso marco de la industria de valores norteamericana.

After a brief review of the literature on the determinants of financial development, the paper reviews the Asian and European financial systems in terms of their size and efficiency. It also compares the steps taken in the two regions in the quest for financial development and stability, which in a few cases are very similar but differ markedly in others. While there has been a clear move towards a more balanced financial structure in both regions, financial liberalization, as well as the strengthening of bank regulation and supervision occurred later in Asia and with a different speed and sequencing. The most striking difference between the two areas is the degree of international - and regional – financial integration, much lower for Asia. Finally, the case of Spain - as a European country with a finance-led convergence process - is analyzed in more detail. Lessons are drawn from the Spanish experience for Asian countries.

This paper assesses financial sector development in Latin America, both in the banking system and in the capital markets. After a brief review of the explanatory factors and the definitions of financial development found in the literature, Latin American countries are classified in groups of similar characteristics by using cluster analysis - first worldwide and second within the region - in terms of financial depth and per capita income. In the worldwide exercise, virtually all Latin American countries appear in the same cluster, which argues in favor of a regional dimension in financial development. A comparison of the Asian and Eastern European emerging regions shows that Latin America lags behind Asia in terms of financial development and compares slightly unfavorably with Eastern Europe. In the regional cluster exercise, four relatively homogeneous groups of Latin American countries are found. Stylized facts of the four groups’ banking sectors and capital markets show - in line with the results of the more recent economic literature - that those countries which have deeper financial systems are also those with a more efficient financial system. Although no conclusions on causality can be drawn from this review, it argues in favor of a virtuous circle, in terms of financial depth and efficiency, for countries with the most appropriate structure of the financial system.

In this paper we first present supporting evidence of the existence of heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across euro area countries. Based on the estimation of New Phillips Curves for five major countries of the euro area, we find that there is significant inertial (backward looking) behavior in inflation in four of them, while inflation in Germany has a dominant forward looking component. In the second part of the paper we present an optimizing agent model for the euro area emphasizing the heterogeneity in inflation persistence across regions. Allowing for such a backward looking component will affect the evaluation of the degree of nominal rigidities relevant for the monetary policy design. We explore the welfare implications of this circumstance by comparing the adjustment of the economies and the area as a whole in response to terms-of-trade shocks under four monetary policy rules: fully optimal, optimal inflation targeting, HICP targeting and output gap stabilization.

This paper analyses corporate investment decisions in France and Spain, focusing on the role of financial constraints in explaining investment behaviour. For this purpose, we take advantage of very carefully harmonised data sets that allow for the use of variables homogeneously defined in both countries. The information used consists of two panel data sets of industry firms selected from those reporting information to the Central Balance Sheet Offices of the Banque de France and of the Banco de España over the period 1991-1999. So as to test for the existence of liquidity constraints, we conduct a test of excess sensitivity of investment to cash flow using a standard Euler equation model. More precisely, both the theoretical model and the testing strategy used in this paper closely follow Bond and Meghir (1994). These authors present an empirical model of investment based on the Euler equation of an extended version of the standard neoclassical model of investment. This model assumes that the firm faces a hierarchy of costs for the alternative sources of finance and leads to different characterisations of investment behaviour for firms pursuing different financial policies. Overall, our results suggest that there are significant differences in investment behaviour which are closely linked to the financial situation of firms. In particular, the evidence found is consistent with the investment expenditure of firms paying zero dividends being constrained by the availability of internally generated funds.

Over the last decade economic integration has advanced in both areas, and this has been seen as an opportunity for real convergence in Latin America and in the European periphery. But our approach emphasises that integration has to be supplemented by macroeconomic stability and structural reform. Focusing on these aspects, this work compares both experiences which, while very diverse in nature, depth and scope, may however offer through their differences and analogies interesting insights, especially for Latin America, as the degree of integration in Europe is much more advanced. The conclusions point to the need for a further effort in Latin America to achieve the fruits of reasonable policies, in order to compensate for the robust institutional underpinnings from which the European periphery has benefited. Thus, at the current juncture, as Latin America looks back with mixed feelings on the past decade, perseverance and determination in pursuing reforms are called for.

This paper presents the Spanish country block (ES-MCM) of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in a close co-operation with the ECB and the Banco de España. The theoretical structure of the ES-MCM block is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e. the supply factors determine the long-run equilibrium, while in the short run output is demanddetermined, res ulting from a sluggish adjustment of prices and quantities. The paper is structured as follows. First, a simplified theoretical counterpart of the ES-MCM block is presented and its steadystate comparative statistics and stock-flow equilibrium properties are studied. The theoretical analysis is followed by the review of the estimated equations of the ES-MCM block. Finally the simulation properties of the ES-MCM block are presented in the light of five alternative shock simulations.

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. T o the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of tw o competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of eac happroach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eu-rosystem.

En este trabajo se describen los principales elementos del proceso de ajuste estacional y de extraccion de senales que se emplean en la Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral (CNTR). Se especifica, en primer lugar, la estructura de componentes subyacentes empleada, para, a continuacion, describir los aspectos tecnicos de SU estimacion. Dichos aspectos comprenden el calculo de los efeetos de calendario, la determinacion de los componentes estocasticos Y la descomposicion final. Asimismo, se detalla el proceso de extraccion de seriales apJicado al Producto Interior Bruto (PIS) y,finalmente, el metoda de equilibrado y conciliacion multivariante empleado.

Desde un punto de vista tecnico, la metodologia utilizada combina la descomposicion de series temporales basad a en modelos ARIMA con los procedimientos de desagregacion temporal que extienden al caso multivariante el procedimiento de Chow y Lin. Estos procedimientos forman parte de las recamendaciones efectuadas por Eurostat y el Banco Central Europeo para armonizar la compilacion de la CNTR en los paises de laUnion Europea (UE), con el fin de facilitar las comparaciones dentro de dicha Union.

This paper examines the financial policies and balance sheet adjustment of companies. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, we estimate models for dividends, new equity issuance and investment, relating them to debt adjustment. The results suggest that while dividends are sticky in the short run, they are an important means of balance sheet adjustment in the long run. Other evidence supports the idea that companies actively target their balance sheet by variation in dividends, new equity issues and investment. There is evidence for financial pressure effects of debt-servicing costs on investment and dividends but not new equity issuance.

The Hodrick-Prescott filter applied to seasonally adjusted series has become a paradigm for business-cycle estimation at many economic agencies and institutions. We show that the filter can be obtained from MMSE estimation of the components in an unobserved component model, where the original series is decomposed into (long-term) trend, cyclical, seasonal, and (highlytransitory) irregular components. The component models are sensible and combine desirable “ad-hoc” features with series-dependent features that guarantee consistency with the data. The model-based framework provides improvements having to do with the precision of end-point estimation and the stability of the cyclical signal.

 Programs TRAMO and SEATS, that contain an ARIMA-model-based methodology, are applied for seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation of the exports, imports, and balance of trade Japanese series. The programs are used in an automatic mode, and the results are found satisfactory. It is shown how the SEATS output can be used to discriminate among competing models. Finally, using the balance of trade series, direct and indirect estimation are analyzed and discussed.

We explore the implications of the differential behavior of total factor productivity across sectors to understand the dynamics of the relative prices of services to manufacturing sectors. We find that contrary to the redictions of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, the evolution of relative markups between services and manufacturing sectors has been a key determinant of recent Spanish dual inflation.

In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as “the gap”, into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. We also demonstrate the connection between our gap measure and the gap between ouput and its natural level, a more traditional indicator of aggregate inefficiency. Finally, we derive a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related to our gap variable. Our welfare measure corresponds to the inefficient component of economic fluctuations, and should thus be interpreted as a lower bound to the costs of the latter. When applied to postwar U.S. data, for some plausible parametrizations, our measure indicates non-negligible welfare losses of gap fluctuations. The results, however, hinge critically on some key parameters, including the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply.

 This paper uses a well-established growth accounting framework to measure the contribution of ICT goods (considered as capital inputs) to output and labour productivity growth in the Spanish economy. We apply this framework to a sample of around 1300 Spanish firms per year over the period 1991-2000. The use of micro-level data is especially useful for the purpose in hand. Firstly, our database provides detailed breakdowns of capital. This helps mitigate the usual mismeasurement problems in obtaining capital stocks. Secondly, by avoiding the usual availability lags associated with the use of aggregate data, we can focus on a more recent period. The main findings may be summarised as follows. 1) The use of ICT as a capital input has made a positive and, relative to its cost share, significant contribution to output and productivity growth. 2) This contribution was higher in the second half of the 1990s. For this period, we estimate that the use of ICT inputs accounted for nearly one-fourth of labour productivity growth. 3) At a sectoral level, we find that there is a general rise in the share of ICT in total capital and a general reduction in ICT cost shares, driven by the sharp downward trend in the prices of ICT products. However, the contribution of ICT inputs displays a degree of heterogeneity across sectors, owing to the disparity of sectoral accumulation rates of ICT inputs. Finally, results at the firm level exhibit a notable heterogeneity, although a majority of firms have experienced an increase in the ICT capital growth rates and in the ICT contribution to growth.

En el medio plazo, la entrada en circulación del euro traerá consigo un efecto moderador sobre la tasa de inflación de la economía española. No obstante, en un primer momento hay una serie de factores que podrían generar algún efecto alcista transitorio sobre la tasa de inflación. Las empresas pueden desear fijar precios en euros que sean atractivos para los consumidores; además, es posible que se produzca un traslado a los precios de consumo de los costes de adaptación de las empresas a la nueva moneda y que se lleven a cabo revisiones de precios por otros motivos, sin incurrir en costes de menú adicionales. En este documento se analiza con detalle el riesgo inflacionista que puede derivarse de la política de fijación de precios de las empresas, bajo distintas hipótesis de comportamiento. En cuanto a los resultados presentados, y a pesar de las limitaciones de la base estadística, hay algunas conclusiones que se desprenden con cierta robustez: el carácter neutral de los ajustes simétricos, la mayor magnitud relativa que pueden alcanzar los ajustes para niveles de precios muy reducidos y la cuantía relativamente reducida de los posibles efectos inflacionistas, aun en el caso de ajustes generalizados al alza, con la posible excepción del caso extremo de que se produzca un redondeo generalizado a décimos de euro.