Labour market

From this page you can access thematically grouped Analytical Articles published in the Economic Bulletin from 1999, ordered by date of dissemination within each year.

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  • 05/12/2017
    Migratory pressures in the long run: international migration projections to 2050 (731 KB) Rodolfo Campos

    This article presents bilateral international migration projections to 2050 based on a new methodology that takes into account the population growth both in countries of origin and countries of destination. To do this, the methodology used by Hanson and McIntosh (2016) to project the future migratory flows to a sample of OECD countries is generalised to all countries worldwide. The United Nations population growth forecasts are used as a basis for projecting future migratory flows. The main findings of the exercise indicate that the number of migrants is projected to increase from 2.8% of the world population in 2010 to around 3.5% in 2050, as a result of the strong increase in migrants from India and sub-Saharan Africa. Against this background, and despite the slowdown in demographic growth in Latin America, the United States is expected to continue to receive high net immigration flows and to remain the country with the highest stock of immigrants globally, while continental Europe will post larger net immigration flows.

  • 16/11/2017
    An assessment of the effectiveness of rebates for keeping the over-60s in employment (472 KB) Mario Izquierdo Peinado and Sergio Puente Díaz

    Traditionally, employment policies in Spain have rested to a greater extent than in other countries on the application of rebates to the Social Security contributions of specific groups.
    The international empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this type of programme tends to
    show that, in general, these programmes involve a high budgetary cost, with limited although
    positive effects on the groups concerned, without affecting the aggregate level of employment. With the aim of providing additional evidence on this matter, this article summarises the results of an exercise assessing a specific Social Security contribution rebates programme in force from 2006 to 2012 for the group of workers over 60. Specifically, using data from the Spanish MCVL (Social Security administrative labour records), the effect that the elimination of this rebates programme had on the probability of these workers losing their job is estimated. The results show that the elimination of the incentives gave rise to a positive and significant although limited impact on the probability of this group losing their job, which was concentrated among the low-skilled, with relatively few years of service in the firm and with lower severance costs. Overall, the evidence would indicate that the programme produced scant benefits in terms of a higher rate of employment retention for the group of workers concerned. These findings are confined to this specific programme and, therefore, they are not extensible to the range of employment rebates for different groups that have been in force in the past in Spain or are so are present, although they highlight the need for a detailed assessment of active employment policies providing for an analysis of their effectiveness.

  • 31/10/2017
    Human capital formation in the labour market (568 KB) Juan Jimeno, Aitor Lacuesta, Marta Martínez and Ernesto Villanueva

    The data from the OECD’s Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC) allow comparable measures of several aspects of human capital in 13 developed economies to be obtained. Drawing on these data, this article shows that work experience improves the numeracy and literacy skills of low-educated workers, a result that is observed in economies with different labour market institutions, educational systems and workforce compositions. The analyses performed suggest that on-the-job learning contributes considerably to the human capital of less educated individuals, which may help steer the formulation of active employment policies.

  • 19/09/2017
    Regional convergence in Spain: 1980‑2015 (561 KB) Sergio Puente

    This article aims to analyse the process of per capita income convergence between the different Spanish regions and the factors that may have played a role in this process over the last three decades. The main conclusion is that the distance between the per capita income of the different regions has narrowed, albeit slightly. As regards the factors underlying this process, the convergence of labour productivity is the main element that has helped to reduce regional income dispersion, mainly due to a greater accumulation of capital in regions where income was initially lower. Conversely, neither the labour market variables (employment, unemployment) nor total factor productivity have contributed significantly to the reduction of regional differences during the course of the period analysed.

  • 20/06/2017
    The recovery of private consumption in Spain by product type and household (644 KB) Marta Martínez Matute and Alberto Urtasun

    This article describes the behaviour of household spending during the period 2005-2015 based on information from the Household Expenditure Survey. The recent recovery in consumption was broad-based, but breaking down the data in terms of households’ characteristics, the recovery was stronger in those in which the main breadwinner was in work than in those in which he or she was not. By product type, spending on consumer durables, which had shrunk most during the crisis, grew strongest over the two-year period from 2014 to 2015. Despite the strong upturn in consumption in the most recent years of the period considered, in general, median levels of expenditure per household have not yet recovered pre-crisis levels.

  • 25/05/2017
    Federal unemployment insurance in the United States (592 KB) Silvia Albrizio, Juan Carlos Berganza and Iván Kataryniuk

    Unemployment insurance in the United States is one of the fiscal risk-sharing mechanisms designed to mitigate the negative consequences of economic shocks. The system is based on complementary federal and state benefits, which behave very differently during normal and crisis periods. Thus, unemployment insurance is principally a state competence during normal periods, while the federal government assumes an active role in crisis periods, smoothing the negative impact of economic crises on household consumption and mitigating the heterogeneous effects across states.
    This is an element that distinguishes the United States from the European Monetary Union, which lacks automatic fiscal stabilising tools for the area as a whole; consequently the costs arising from shocks have to be assumed by each country individually, which makes it difficult for the area to function homogeneously.

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