Publications

Structural analysis

From this page you can access thematically grouped Analytical Articles published in the Economic Bulletin from 1999, ordered by date of dissemination within each year.

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  • 09/08/2022
    The impact of the surge in inflation and the war on Spanish households’ economic outlook (408 KB) Carmen Martínez-Carrascal

    This article examines the impact that some recent events (specifically, the surge in inflation rates and the war in Ukraine) are having on Spanish households’ economic expectations, using information from the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey. The analysis shows that the upward revision to household inflation expectations since mid-2021 has fed into their nominal spending expectations, which had been on an upward trajectory until the outbreak of the war. This upward path has been interrupted since the outbreak of the war, which has significantly impacted the expectations for the determinants of household spending: households now expect their income, their financial situation and the general economic situation to fare worse than before the war. Against a backdrop of greater projected price growth, the interruption of the upward trend observed in prior months of household expectations for an increase in nominal spending (with a downward adjustment, in particular, to the projected spending on durables) would entail weaker spending in real terms. In addition, the gap between the forecast growth of nominal spending and that of income has widened since early 2022. Accordingly, households appear to be implicitly anticipating slightly lower saving rates.
    The analysis also shows that, in response to higher nominal spending on energy consumed in the home, households with a modest liquidity buffer have reduced their spending on other goods. These households are mostly low-income ones which are also more exposed to changes in energy prices, given that the energy bill absorbs a greater proportion of their income. By contrast, households with a larger liquidity buffer have not significantly changed their levels of spending on other items, which they have funded by temporarily reducing their saving rates.

  • 27/07/2022
    Survey of household finances (EFF) 2020: methods, results and changes since 2017 (909 KB) Directorate General Economics, Statistics and Research

    This article presents the main results of the Survey of Household Finances 2020, which reflect the financial position of Spanish households at end-2020. These results are of particular interest, since they allow for overall analysis of the income, assets, debt and spending of Spanish households in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The article also describes the key changes compared with the last edition of the survey, referring to 2017.

  • 30/06/2022
    Recent economic performance of Spanish SMEs and developments in their access to external financing according to the European Central Bank's half-yearly Survey (352 KB) Álvaro Menéndez and Maristela Mulino

    The latest SAFE results show that the activity of Spanish SMEs continued to grow in the period from October 2021 to March 2022, albeit at a slower pace than six months earlier. The rise in costs prompted a deterioration in profits for most of these firms. Access to external finance is not a factor of concern for most SMEs; indeed, the indicator of obstacles to obtaining bank loans has held at very low values. However, the results show an interruption of the trend of improving availability of bank loans during the period analysed, linked to the SMEs’ pessimistic perception of the general economic environment. In addition, a significant percentage of SMEs reported an increase in financing costs. Against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty generated, among other factors, by the economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine, overall the respondent firms anticipated a deterioration in access to finance for the period April-September 2022.

  • 28/06/2022
    Developments in business solvency and demographics in Spain since the outbreak of the pandemic (390 KB) Roberto Blanco and Marina García

    The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on the economy and affected Spanish businesses’ economic and financial situation, albeit with high sectoral heterogeneity. This article analyses how this crisis has affected business solvency and demographics in Spain by means of various indicators. The analysis shows that to date this shock has had a very moderate impact compared with previous crises, largely thanks to the measures deployed by the economic authorities to mitigate its effects. However, there are some latent risks that could materialise, especially if the economic recovery proves to be less robust than anticipated.

  • 05/05/2022
    The effect of workplace pension schemes on households' private savings (528 KB) Marina Gómez-García and Ernesto Villanueva

    The tax incentive enjoyed by workplace pension schemes could encourage participants to increase their total savings or, alternatively, crowd out savings that would have materialised in other financial vehicles in the absence of this incentive. This article uses data from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances to estimate the additional savings generated by this type of scheme. To this end, the financial position of workplace pension scheme participants is compared to that of a group of workers of similar ages, with similar educational attainment levels and occupations, but who do not participate in such schemes. Once the comparable group is constructed, it can be seen that, on average, each euro saved in workplace pension schemes increases private savings by around 66 cents. This is the ratio of the difference in average net wealth between participants and their comparable group (€13,600) to the average amount accumulated in pension schemes (€20,600). Once adjusted for the fact that contributions are tax-exempt, the additional savings generated amount to around 31 cents for every euro contributed, calculated as the ratio of the €6,500 difference in tax-relief-adjusted wealth between the two groups to the average amount accumulated in workplace pension schemes.

  • 19/04/2022
    The performance of investment in capital goods during the pandemic and the role of its sectoral composition (527 KB) Matías Pacce

    The COVID-19 crisis has had a very uneven impact on the different productive sectors of the economy, with those requiring less personal contact or that are less labour-intensive, such as industry, being the least affected. This appears to have been a determining factor behind the buoyancy observed in investment in capital goods during the current crisis, as the sectors representing a higher relative share of investment are those that, broadly speaking, have been more resilient. The drive towards digitalisation and e-commerce has also helped cushion the fall in this aggregate in the current crisis, as they require investing in the relevant equipment. Furthermore, unlike in previous recessions, the relatively favourable financing conditions have helped prevent this factor from being an additional constraint in tackling planned investment projects. Lastly, general government has also played a key role in sustaining investment in capital goods during this crisis, given the effort required in terms of digitalisation in order to continue providing services in a setting marked by mobility restrictions and the need to acquire equipment to deal with the health emergency.

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