Publications

This article summarises the key aspects of the extended and revised version of Spain-STING (Spain, Short-Term INdicator of Growth), which is a tool used by the Banco de España for short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy’s GDP and its demand components. Drawing on a broad set of indicators, several models are estimated that enable GDP, private consumption, public expenditure, investment in capital goods, construction investment, exports and imports to be forecast. The assessment of the new model’s predictive power for the period spanning June 2005-September 2016 shows a slight improvement on the previous version of Spain-STING.

This article aims to analyse the process of per capita income convergence between the different Spanish regions and the factors that may have played a role in this process over the last three decades. The main conclusion is that the distance between the per capita income of the different regions has narrowed, albeit slightly. As regards the factors underlying this process, the convergence of labour productivity is the main element that has helped to reduce regional income dispersion, mainly due to a greater accumulation of capital in regions where income was initially lower. Conversely, neither the labour market variables (employment, unemployment) nor total factor productivity have contributed significantly to the reduction of regional differences during the course of the period analysed.

Against an international background of low tariff barriers, the EU’s trade policy has shifted towards attaining bilateral trade agreements that promote the reduction both of non-tariff barriers and of those regulatory barriers that restrict the movement of goods, services, individuals and investment flows, in addition to including provisions relating to the environment, labour markets and intellectual property rights. An example of these “new-generation” agreements is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) recently negotiated by the EU and Canada, which is in the process of being ratified by the national parliaments.The article describes the general characteristics of new-generation trade agreements, the difficulties posed by their regulatory and wide-ranging nature, and how the CETA has attempted to respond to some of the issues that have proven most controversial for public opinion. The significance of this agreement pertains not only to the economic impact it will have on the European and Canadian economies, but also to how it could act as a model for other agreements with developed countries, including that which the EU and the United Kingdom have to negotiate.

In the past 15 years there has been an expansion in world trade accompanied by a growing international fragmentation of production, which has given rise to the so-called “global value chains” (GVCs). This new way of organising production at the international level means that countries specialise increasingly in small contributions to the final product and that companies are increasingly global.
The Spanish economy has also played a part in these developments, although its participation in GVCs is still below the international average. However, from the onset of the crisis up to 2014, the import content of Spanish exports increased, partly as a result of a reallocation of resources towards firms with a greater import content that have gained weight in total exports.
Moreover, Spain is characterised by the fact that it is one of the countries where exports are closer to the final consumer in the country of destination, a phenomenon that has increased in recent years.

This article analyses the impact of changes in oil prices on the consumer price index (CPI) in the Spanish economy from a historical perspective. The evidence provided reveals a substantial degree of pass-through of these changes to CPI components tied to heating and vehicle fuel (direct effect). However, the estimated effect of changes in crude prices on firms’ input costs (indirect effects) and on inflation or wage expectations (second-round effects) is, on average, moderate.
Consequently, in the current situation, in the absence of fresh shocks in the expected path of oil prices, the rise in the CPI in early 2017 – linked to base effects prompted by the low price of this commodity for most of 2016 – can be expected to be essentially temporary and, therefore, consistent with a downward trajectory in inflation in the coming months.

This article analyses the economic implications of a change in the regulatory framework designed to promote competition among firms, assessing the impact that barriers to competition in the services industry have on the cost of inputs and the exports of manufacturing firms in Spain.
The estimates presented reveal that the reductions in barriers to competition over recent decades have had a significant impact on the real exports of manufacturing firms, especially larger ones, as a result of greater competition in the supply of their inputs.
The results underline the fact that further improvements in the degree of competition may influence the competitiveness of the Spanish economy as a whole.

This article characterises the level of uncertainty in the Spanish economy. Various indicators are analysed, distinguishing their source: financial market volatility, degree of disagreement between agents on the economic situation and economic policy uncertainty. Aggregate uncertainty in the Spanish economy increased in 2016, although it remained at levels below the average for the 2008-2013 recession. The changes in uncertainty captured by financial indicators are shown to have a higher impact on economic activity, and particularly on investment. Finally, it is illustrated how a significant part of the macroeconomic effect of the heightened uncertainty in the past year originated outside the Spanish economy.

This article presents the main results of the Survey of Household Finances 2014, which show the financial position of Spanish households at the end of 2014. It also describes the most significant changes observed in the period from end-2011 to end-2014.