Series: Working Papers. 1532.
Author: Paul Ehling, Michael Gallmeyer, Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen and Philipp Illeditsch.
Topics: Quantitative methods | Business investment | Prices and margins | Inflation | International Economy | Government debt.
Published in: Journal of Financial Economics, 127 (2018), pp.459-484
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Abstract
We show theoretically that inflation disagreement drives a wedge between real and nominal yields and raises their levels and volatilities. We demonstrate empirically that an inflation disagreement increase of one standard deviation raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities, break-even inflation, and the inflation risk premium by at least 30% of their respective standard deviations. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in bonds, interest rate futures, and inflation swaps. Calibrating the model to disagreement, inflation, and yield data reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on real and nominal yield curves.