Series: Working Papers. 1810.
Author: Roberto Ramos and Carlos Sanz.
Topics: Regional analysis | Quantitative methods | Population and ageing | Climate change and green transition | Labour market .
Published in: Comparative Political Studies. Volume 53, Issue 3-4, March 2020, Pages 469-499.
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Abstract
How do voters react to large shocks that are (mostly) outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral effects of wildfires in Spain during 1983-2011. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that a large accidental fire up to nine months ahead of a local election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by almost 8 percentage points. We find that a rally-behind-the-leader effect best explains the results. A simple formalization of this mechanism yields an implication – that the effect should be larger for stronger (more voted) incumbents – that is supported by the data.