Series: Working Papers. 1606.
Author: Fructuoso Borrallo, Ignacio Hernando and Javier Vallés.
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Abstract
This paper offers an empirical analysis of the way in which US unconventional monetary policy has affected Latin American countries. First, we estimate the effects of US monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond interest rates, exchange rates and stock market indices for a set of emerging countries, including five Latin American economies. We find that QE announcements in 2008/2009 and the “tapering talk” in 2013 generated sizable sovereign yield and exchange rate fluctuations. We further find some excess response of Latam asset prices that disappear once we take into account their country characteristics. In the second part of the paper we estimate a simple model that measures the influence of country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals on the transmission of US financial disturbances. An estimated model including the inflation rate, the CDS spread, the ratio of official reserves and market capitalisation explains some of the observed cross-country heterogeneity of spillovers from US monetary policy announcements. Under this model, a greater impact from the normalisation of US monetary policy can be expected in Latin America relative to other emerging economies.