An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy

Series: Working Papers. 2139.

Author: Máximo Camacho, María Dolores Gadea and Ana Gómez Loscos.

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An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy (2 MB)

Abstract

This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle by adapting the multiple change-point model proposed by Camacho, Gadea and Gómez Loscos (2021). In that approach, each individual pair of specific peaks and troughs from a set of indicators is viewed as a realization of a mixture of an unspecified number of separate bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose different means are the reference turning points and whose transitions are governed by a restricted Markov chain. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from 1970.2 to 2020.2 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC).