Un análisis de la evolución de la actividad bancaria en España tras el establecimiento del gravamen temporal de la ley 38/2022
Series: Occasional Papers. 2408.
Author: Ángel Estrada and Carlos Pérez Montes .
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Summary
In this paper, various econometric methodologies are used to attempt to assess whether the levy on lending introduced by Law 38/2022 has since had a differential effect on institutions’ performance. This is an extremely complex exercise, since, added to the inherent difficulty in identifying the causality of economic policy measures, the introduction of this levy coincided with the start of the monetary policy tightening cycle in 2022, which has significantly affected institutions’ performance. In any event, the empirical analysis undertaken since does not reveal appreciable differences between the institutions subject to the levy and other institutions in terms of the net interest margin and net interest income associated with loans and deposits of households and non-financial corporations, or fee and commission income. Breaking down net interest income components, no differential effect is observed on the overall stock of sight and time deposits, either for households or non-financial corporations, or on overall lending to these sectors. The analysis does identify a negative differential effect on households’ time deposit volumes and rates which, in theory, could be compatible with a pass-through of the effects of the levy to this segment. However, this finding is accompanied by others that are not significant and may even be at odds with the pass-through assumption, such as a differential effect for consumer credit that is also negative for its rates but positive for its flow of credit. The conclusions of the supplementary analysis of the differences between European countries’ banking sectors are in line with those of the analysis of institutions in Spain. Therefore, on the whole, we have not found any apparent evidence consistent with the pass-through of the levy.