The Third Workshop on emerging markets was held at the Banco de España in Madrid on 24-25 November 2005. Gathered together at the workshop were central bank economists from the euro area, the new EU members and, for the first time, from Latin America. The workshop was structured in seven sessions comprising twenty papers, which explored varied issues of interest for emerging markets, such as inflation dynamics, monetary policy rules and transmission mechanisms, macroeconomic vulnerabilities, capital flows and financial crises. The welcome address was given by José Viñals, Director General of the Banco de España, who remarked on the importance of bringing together central bankers from a varied number of countries and with very different economic environments in a workshop that has become a fruitful framework for discussing research issues of relevance for emerging market economies.
Information
24 November 2005 - 25 November 2005
Madrid
Speakers
24 November
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- 09:15h - 09:30h
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Welcome address
José Viñals (Banco de España)
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- 09:30h - 11:00h
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Session I: Inflation dynamics and monetary policy
Chair: Peter Mooslechner (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
"An alternative approach to measuring the output gap"
(362 KB). Juraj Zeman (Národná banka Slovenska)"Money and prices in Estonia"
(255 KB). Aurelijus Dabusinskas (Eesti Pank)"Does information matter? (for how interest rates and exchange rates comove)"
(352 KB). Marcelo Sánchez (European Central Bank)Discussant: Antonio Millaruelo (Banco de España)
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- 11:30h - 12:45h
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Session II: credit growth and business cycle co-movements
Chair: David López Salido (Banco de España)
"Credit growth in central and eastern Europe: emerging from financial repression to new (over) shooting stars?"
(333 KB). Balazs Egert (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)"Interactions between business, credit and interest rate cycles: a convergence or divergence? A comparison between Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and the Euro Area"
(694 KB). Rafal Kierzenkowski (Banque de France) Discussant: Marina Vasjukova (Latvijas Banka)
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- 14:30h - 16:00h
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Session III: Capital flows to emerging market economies
Chair: Paul Butzen (Banque Nationale de Belgique)
"Determinants of spreads on sovereign bank loans: the role of credit history"
(289 KB). Peter Benczúr (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)"Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum-likelihood disequilibrium approach”
(64 KB). Guillermo Felices (Bank of England)"What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?
(2 MB)". Alicia García-Herrero (Banco de España)Discussant: Thomas Jensen (Danmarks Nationalbank)
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- 16:15h - 17:45h
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Session IV: Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
Chair: Ágnes Csermely (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
"Financial openness and macroecnomic volatility in emerging market economies"
(353 KB). Massimiliano Pisani (Banca d´Italia)"Debt sustainability and procyclical fiscal policies in Latin America"
(347 KB). Enrique Alberola (Banco de España)"The determinants of "domestic" original sin in emerging economies"
(299 KB). Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank)Discussant: Iikka Korhonen (Suomen Pankki)
25 November
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- 09:00h - 10:30h
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Session V: External accounts and exchange rates
Chair: Alfred De Marco (Central Bank of Malta)
"Is the FX derivatives market effective and efficient in reducing currency risk? Some evidence, with focus on Chile"
(468 KB). Jorge Selaive (Banco Central de Chile)"The effectiveness of discretionary intervention by the Banco de la Republica on the foreign exchange market"
(301 KB). Jorge Toro Córdoba (Banco Central de la República)"Trade balances of the Central and Eastern European EU member states and the role of FDI"
(292 KB). Sabine Herrmann (Deutsche Bundesbank)Discussant: Roland Beck (European Central Bank)
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- 10:45h - 12:15h
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Session VI: Financial crises
Chair: Jorge Toro (Banco Central de la República)
"A spatial approach to modelling contagion among emerging economies"
(139 KB). George Hondroyannis (Bank of Greece)"Do migrants' remittances reduce the probabililty of financial crises in emerging markets?"
(480 KB). Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d´Italia)"A model for the analysis of the Paris Club debt buyback at par value"
(756 KB). Arnaud Manas (Banque de France) Discussant: Juan Carlos Berganza (Banco de España)
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- 12:30h - 14:00h
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Session VII: Monetary and exchange rate transmission mechanisms
Chair: Santiago Fernández de Lis (Banco de España)
"Looking for the optimal policy rule and optimal forecast horizon. The case of Poland"
(788 KB). Jan Przystupa Narodowy (Bank Polski)"Non-linear pass-through of the exchange rate: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil"
(314 KB). Arnildo da Silva (Banco Central do Brasil)"Exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries"
(173 KB). Iikka Korhonen (Suomen Pankki)Discussant: Fernando Avalos (Banco Central de la República Argentina)