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Workshop on Expectations and Macroeconomics

1011 June 2013
Madrid
Conferences

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The nature of expectations plays a crucial role in macroeconomic debates. For example, the recent housing market crashes in many countries were preceded by clear signals of overvaluation; why did these signals go unheeded so long? This conference brought together recent work that models expectations to better understand instability in financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations more generally. It also sought to evaluate this theoretical work in the light of new data on consumers' and investors' expectations.

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Presentations

10 June 2013
 
14.30 - 14.50
Opening Remarks

Fernando Restoy (Deputy Governor of Banco de España)

Session 1. Chair: Albert Marcet
14.50 - 16.00
Anton Nakov (Banco de España) and Galo Nuño (ECB)

"Bayesian Foundations of Constant-Gain Learning" File PDF: Opens in a new window (426 KB)

Comments: Christian Matthes File PDF: Opens in a new window (114 KB) (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

16.00 - 17.10
Krisztina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics) and Zoltan Reppa (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

"Economic Stability and the Responsiveness of Inflation Expectations”

Comments: Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)

17.40 - 18.50
G. Ferrero (Banca d’Italia), M. Miccoli (Banca d’Italia) and Sergio Santoro (Banca d’Italia)

"Informational Effects of Monetary Policy" File PDF: Opens in a new window (331 KB)

Comments: James Costain (Banco de España)

18.50 - 20.00
Tiziana Assenza (Catholic University of Milan), Peter Heemeijer (University of Amsterdam and ABN AMRO), Cars Hommes (University of Amsterdam) and Domenico Massaro (University of Amsterdam)

"Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior”

Comments: Ernesto Villanueva (Banco de España)

11 June 2013
Session 2. Chair: Juan F. Jimeno
09.00 - 10.10
Jess Benhabib (New York University), George Evans (University of Oregon) and Seppo Honkapohjia (Bank of Finland)

“Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?” File PDF: Opens in a new window (347 KB)

Comments: Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)

10.10 - 11.20
Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim) and Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)

“Booms and Busts in Asset Prices” File PDF: Opens in a new window (376 KB)

Comments: Henrique Basso (Banco de España)

11.40 - 13.00
Noah Williams (University of Wisconsin)

"Financial Instability via Adaptive Learning" File PDF: Opens in a new window (463 KB)

Comments: Anton Nakov File PDF: Opens in a new window (79 KB)  (ECB)

13.00 - 13.50
Olympia Bover (Banco de España)

Presentation on "Measurement of Expectations using Household Surveys" File PDF: Opens in a new window (911 KB)

Session 3. Chair: Olympia Bover
15.00 - 16.10
Ricardo Nunes (Federal Reserve Board)

“Do Central Bank´s Forecasts Take into Account Public Opinion and Public Views?” File PDF: Opens in a new window (111 KB)

Comments: Carlos Thomas File PDF: Opens in a new window (55 KB) (Banco de España)

16.10 - 17.20
George Evans (University of Oregon) and Bruce McGough (Oregon State University)

“Learning to Optimize” File PDF: Opens in a new window (274 KB)

Comments: Krizstina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics)

17.40 - 19.00
Panel Discussion

Juan F. Jimeno (Banco de España), Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico), David Vestin (Sveriges Riksbank), Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland)