Occasional Papers

The Occasional Papers series seeks to disseminate the work carried out by the Banco de España within its sphere of competence that is considered to be of general interest for knowledge of the functioning of the Spanish economy and of its international environment.

The opinions and analyses published in the Occasional Papers are the responsibility of the authors and are not necessarily shared by the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

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  • 24/10/2014
    1407. The Spanish survey of household finances (EFF): description and methods of the 2011 wave (500 KB) Olympia Bover, Enrique Coronado and Pilar Velilla

    This paper describes the methods of the fourth wave of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF2011), paying special attention to the innovations relative to the previous waves. The EFF2011 was designed to give continuity to the information on household finances collected through the EFF2002, EFF2005 and EFF2008. A desirable characteristic present in all four waves is the oversampling of wealthy households. This is achieved on the basis of the wealth tax through a blind system of collaboration between the National Statistics Institute and the Tax Office which preserves stringent tax confidentiality. An additional important characteristic of the EFF is that the second, third, and fourth waves have a panel component. Further, a refreshment sample by wealth stratum has been incorporated in those waves to preserve cross-sectional representativity and overall sample size. The EFF is the only statistical source in Spain that allows the linking of incomes, assets, debts, and consumption at the household level. There are now four editions of the EFF, which means that these statistics capture the financial situation of households over a long period, including an expansion and a recession. Moreover, the financial situation of Spanish households can now be compared with that of households in other European countries thanks to the recent availability of similar surveys in the rest of the EU.

  • 04/09/2015
    1406. Tax structure and revenue-raising capacity in Spain: A comparative analysis with the UE (596 KB) Pablo Hernández de Cos and David López Rodríguez

    This paper describes the revenue-raising capacity and structure of the Spanish tax system, in comparison with the economies of the European Union. Spain stands out for the low weight of its tax revenues in GDP relative to the EU27 average. This lower weight of tax revenue is mainly a consequence of indirect taxes (VAT, excise duties and environmental taxes). In fact, Spain has the lowest weight of consumption taxation in the European Union. As regards labour taxation, revenue raised as a proportion of GDP is similar to the EU27 average, although the weight of social security contributions in GDP, in particular those charged to employers, is higher. Spain also raises relatively more revenue from the taxation of capital, in particular from the taxation of wealth.

    There is a Spanish version of this edition with the same number

  • 09/10/2014
    1405. Macroeconomic policy in Brazil: inflation targeting, public debt structure and credit policies (1.002 KB) Fernando López Vicente and José María Serena Garralda

    Macroeconomic policy in Latin America underwent significant changes in the late nineties. Brazil is an outstanding example: inflation targeting was introduced in 1999 and a new fiscal policy framework was set up in 2000 with the Fiscal Responsibility Law. However, two elements of the Brazilian economy constrained the apparently state-of-the-art macroeconomic policy framework: the composition of public debt and the structure of the banking system. This paper discusses why macroeconomic policies were restricted by those factors and how they have evolved differently. The structure of public debt, characterised by indexation, short-term maturities and short US dollar positions, imposed significant constraints on macroeconomic policies during the 2000s. Nevertheless, these vulnerabilities were gradually overcome and the composition of public debt has remained stable in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. At the same time, the structure of the banking system was characterised by credit segmentation and high interest spreads, and these characteristics are still present today. These features have become key elements in understanding current macroeconomic developments, credit dynamics and the economic policy stance.

  • 18/09/2014
    1404. Los desafíos para la política monetaria en las economías avanzadas tras la Gran Recesión (915 KB) Juan Carlos Berganza, Ignacio Hernando and Javier Vallés

    After almost six years with official interest rates at close to zero and with numerous unconventional measures still in place, 2014 is witnessing the beginning of the process of monetary normalisation in those economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, in which the recovery seems to have taken hold. However, the Bank of Japan is still implementing an ambitious programme of monetary expansion and the ECB has recently adopted new expansionary measures. This paper first assesses the various extraordinary monetary policy programmes conducted by the major central banks in advanced economies in response to the global financial crisis. Second, it sets out the risks associated with keeping the existing measures in place and raises questions in relation to the gradual withdrawal of these stimuli. Finally, it offers some lessons for the conduct of monetary policy in the future.

  • 19/08/2014
    1403. Update and re-estimation of the Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE) (606 KB) Samuel Hurtado, Pablo Manzano, Eva Ortega and Alberto Urtasun

    The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is specified as a large set of error correction mechanism equations, and, especially in the short run, is mostly demand driven. This paper presents an update of the model, estimated with data from 1995-2012.
    In this new version, private productive investment and employment react more to output, capturing the higher sensitivity of these variables observed during the crisis, and prices and wages react less both to each other and to the evolution of real variables. Credit is now an endogenous variable in the model and it also helps explain the behaviour of the main demand components. As a result of all these changes, simulations now generally display a somewhat stronger demand channel and show nominal effects that are both smaller and with less inertia. The updated model describes an economy that is more reactive to financial shocks other than changes in interest rates, where wage moderation can generate growth and employment if it is followed by price moderation and where fiscal consolidation reduces public deficit and has negative but moderate effects on GDP.

  • 13/08/2014
    1402. El empleo de las Administraciones Públicas en España: caracterización y evolución durante la crisis (631 KB) Antonio Montesinos, Javier J. Pérez and Roberto Ramos

    We analyze the evolution of General Government employment in Spain over the economic crisis and the recent fiscal consolidation process. We characterize the changes in the structure and composition of General government workforce between economics sectors, level of administration, and type of contract. We also illustrate the impact of the most recent discretionary policy measures on the dynamics of hiring by the General Government sector and on the number of hours worked by public employees. In the paper we also provide review of the different statistical sources available on the number of public employees, including a discussion on their usefulness and an attempt at reconciling differences among them.

  • 19/05/2014
    1401. Integración financiera y modelos de financiación de los bancos globales (794 KB) José María Serena and Eva Valdeolivas

    Cross-border bank flows are experiencing a protracted contraction after the global financial crisis, in stark contrast with the recovery of other capital flows. The process can be driven by ongoing shifts in global banks international funding patters. Banks net issuances in international markets are contracting, on aggregate terms. Global banks are also obtaining less wholesale funding from their branches in key financial centers. These trends are to some extent driven by regulatory measures aimed at achieving more stable funding patterns. They are also consequence of the financial crisis on advanced economies banking systems. Financial integration could experience a structural change in these trends persist. Before the crisis, it was defined by large cross-border bank flows. The current trend could imply a growing relevance of banks’ international expansion through independent banking subsidiaries. As a side effect, banks cross-border retrenchment could foster financial disintermediation in international markets. Large international issuances by non-financial corporations could be incipient signs of such process.

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