External statistics after the pandemic: addressing novel analytical challenges - Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, European Central Bank, Banco de España

This conference on External Statistics brings together users and compilers of external statistics. It is organised jointly by the Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics (IFC) of the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Banco de España (BdE). The event aims to foster regular discussions and sharing of experiences within the central banking community as well as with other interested stakeholders and users to identify the main analytical needs, prioritise data collections and address upcoming challenges in external statistics. To this end, the agenda include keynote speeches from influential policymakers and academics, round table discussions and thematic sessions, with inputs both from analysts and compilers.

Following its first edition held in 2020 (Lisbon, Portugal), this conference will focus on the recent factors that have been reshaping the landscape for external statistics: in particular, the consequences of the pandemic and its aftermath, digitalisation, geo-political tensions and growing attention to environmental issues. The event will also be an opportunity to shed light on important statistical developments affecting the measurement of the external sector, namely improvements in compilation methods, the use of multiple information sources, the growing importance of micro data and the ongoing review of international statistical standards, particularly the update of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM7).



12 February

    • 09:00h - 09:15h
    • Welcome and Introduction by Governor of Banco de España Pablo Hernández de Cos
    • 09:15h - 10:15h
    • SESSION 1: Nationality-Based Cross-Border Exposures

      Chair: Juan Peñalosa (Head of Statistics Department, Banco de España)

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      Globalization and the Reach of Multinationals Implications for Portfolio Exposures, Capital Flows and Home Bias

      Carol Bertaut (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), Beau Bressler (University of California, Davis), Stephanie Curcuru (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

      The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area

      Martin Schmitz (European Central Bank), Roland Beck (European Central Bank), Antonio Coppola (Stanford University Graduate School of Business and SIEPR), Angus Lewis (Stanford University Graduate School of Business), Matteo Maggiori (Stanford University Graduate School of Business, NBER, and CEPR), Jesse Schreger (Columbia Business School, NBER and CEPR)

      Consolidated Foreign Wealth of Nations: Nationality-Based Measures of International Exposure

      André Sánchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin TCD / International Macro - TCD)

    • 10:45h - 11:30h
    • Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane (Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank)
    • 11:30h - 13:00h
    • SESSION 2: Analytical Perspectives on Globalisation

      Chair: Bruno Tissot (Bank for International Settlements)

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      Impact of Multinational Enterprises Activities on Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Forecasting

      Stephen Byrne (Central Bank of Ireland), M. Andersson, V. Jarvis and B. González Pardo (European Central Bank), with input from others

      International Investment Income: Patterns, Drivers, and Heterogeneous Sensitivities

      Giovanni Donato (The Graduate Institute), Cédric Tille (The Graduate Institute)

      Household Characteristics and International Financial Integration

      Simone Arrigoni (Trinity College Dublin), Tara McIndoe-Calder (Central Bank of Ireland) ), Agustín Bénétrix (Trinity College Dublin), Davide Romelli (Trinity College Dublin)

      Portfolio Equity Around the World: Where Are the Missing Assets?

      Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti (The Brookings Institution)

    • 14:15h - 15:15h
    • ROUND TABLE: Addressing Post-Pandemic Challenges and Looking Forward, the Analysts’ Perspective

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      Moderador/Moderator: Javier Pérez (Head of International Economics and Euro Area Department, Banco de España)

      Philip R. Lane (Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank)

      Galina Hale (University of California, Santa Cruz)

      Robert Kirchner (Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements)

      Carmen Díaz Mora (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Spain)

    • 15:15h - 16:15h
    • SESSION 3: Measurement of Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment

      Chair: Sarah Barahona (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

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      Experimental Ultimate Host Economy Statistics for U.S. Direct Investment Abroad

      Larkin Terrie (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Kirsten Brew, Jessica Hanson, Ricardo Limes and Ryan Smith (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

      Where is the Real Impact of Foreign Direct Investment? - The Case of the Portuguese Outward Foreign Direct Investment

      Carlos Figueira (Bank of Portugal)

      Where Are the Hidden Securities in External Statistics?

      Mykola Ryzhenkov (University of Osnabrück), Fausto Pastoris (European Central Bank), Martin Schmitz (European Central Bank), Jorge Diz Dias (European Central Bank), João Falcão Silva (World Bank)

    • 16:45h - 18:15h
    • SESSION 4: Analytical Issues in Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

      Chair: Aurel Schubert (Member of the International Statistical Institute, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

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      Are goods and services trade complementary? Evidence from a New Micro Dataset

      Stefano Federico, Flavia Ciccioli and  Enrico Tosti (Bank of Italy)

      Which Countries Own/Control your Supply Chain?

      Oscar Lemmers, Khee Fung Wong, Tom Notten, Leen Prenen and Dennis Dahlmans (Statistics Netherlands)

      International Sourcing During COVID-19: How Did Chilean Firms Fare?

      Elvira Prades (Banco de España), Jennifer Peña (Central Bank of Chile)

      Exploring the Evolving Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and the Investing Country Preferences in Developing Asian Economies Using Machine Learning

      Carmelita G. Esclanda-Lo, Gabriel A. Masangkay, Chelsea Anne S. Ong and Rossvern S. Reyes (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

13 February

    • 09:00h - 10:00h
    • SESSION 5: Exploiting New Data Sources for External Statistics

      Chair: Claudia Mann (European Central Bank)

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      Spanish Experience in the Use of Data Generated by the Private Sector with an Application to Estimation of Tourism Data

      Maria Velasco (Spanish National Statistical Institute), Javier Alvarez (Banco de España)

      Using EMIR Data to Compile External Statistics

      Kujtim Avdiu and Eva Ubl (Oesterreichische National Bank), Stephan Unger (Saint Anselm College, USA)

      Web Scraping as a Detection Tool in Identifying Indonesian Cross-Border Digital Trade Actors

      Aditya Wisnugraha Sugiyarto, Hasudungan Paulanka Siburian, Marlina Novita Uligoma, Dwi Cahyo Ardianto, Novi Ajeng Salehah and Detasya Avri Magfira (Bank Indonesia)

    • 10:00h - 11:00h
    • FUTURE FORWARD: Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Official External Statistics

      Moderator: Fabienne Fortanier (De Nederlandsche Bank)

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      Challenges and Opportunities Presented by Generative AI

      Jean-Marc Museux (Eurostat)

      An Ocean of Data: The Potential of Data on Vessel Traffic

      Graham Pilgrim (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

      PortWatch: Monitoring Trade Disruptions from Space

      Alessandra Sozzi (International Monetary Fund)

    • 11:30h - 13:00h
    • SESSION 6: Estimation Techniques in External Statistics

      Chair: Silvia Fabiani (Head of Statistical analysis Directorate, Bank of Italy)

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      An Early Estimation of Foreign Direct Investment Income in the Balance of Payments

      Luis Molina Sánchez, Helge Schäfer and Esther López Espinosa (Banco de España)

      Personal Transfers in the Balance of Payments: Estimation Under Changing Migration Patterns

      Jörg Feuerhake (Deutsche Bundesbank), Maria Pia Cobian (Banco de España)

      Revamping Travel Estimates in the Balance of Payments: Mid- and Post-COVID19 Models

      Krit Damrikichakusala (Bank of Thailand)

      Capturing E-Commerce Transactions in Balance of Payments Statistics – A Case of India

      Savita Pareek, Seema Saggar and Arjya Misra (Reserve Bank of India)

    • 14:15h - 15:30h
    • ROUND TABLE: Addressing post-pandemic challenges and looking forward, the compilers perspective

      Moderator: Bruno Tissot (Bank for International Settlements)

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      Introduction: BPM7 - External Sector Statistics Address New Challenges

      Carlos Sánchez Muñoz, Venkat Josyula and Jannick Damgaard, (International Monetary Fund)


      Sarah Barahona (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

      Silvia Fabiani (Bank of Italy)

      Albert Kroese (International Monetary Fund)

      Juan Peñalosa (Banco de España)

      Aurel Schubert (International Statistical Institute)

      Caroline Willeke (European Central Bank) 

    • 16:00h - 17:30h
    • SESSION 7: New challenges in compiling external statistics

      Chair: Albert Kroese (International Monetary Fund)

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      Challenges in Compiling CO2 Emission Allowances in the Balance of Payments Statistics in Poland

      Grzegorz Dobroczek and Jacek Kocerka (Narodowy Bank Polski)

      FDI true value: experimenting with market capitalisation ratios to value unlisted FDI equity

      François Robin, Véronique Genre and Christophe Guette-Khiter (Banque de France)

      Malaysia’s Experience in Using Mirror Data to Complement External Sector Statistics

      Nurina Nasaruddin, Zima Mazfahani Mazlan and Choo Ching Yii (Bank Negara Malaysia)


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