Publications

Analytical Articles

The Analytical Articles present various subjects relating to the economy and finances of Spain, the euro area and the international environment. They seek to bring the papers and analyses of the Banco de España to the attention of a broad public audience interested in current economic and financial affairs.

Since January 2017, the Analytical Articles have been disseminated ahead of the publication of the related quarterly Economic Bulletin and are listed by release date or by subject.

All documents are available in PDF format PDF File. Opens in a new window

  • 23/03/2020
    Results of non-financial corporations to 2019 Q4. Preliminary year-end data (480 KB) Álvaro Menéndez Pujadas and Maristela Mulino

    According to the Central Balance Sheet Data Office Quarterly Survey, non-financial corporations’ activity lost momentum in 2019, resulting in a slowdown in job creation. However, the high inflow of dividends contributed to an increase in ordinary profit and, as a result, average levels of return on ordinary activities also grew. In addition, financing costs continued to decline, allowing the spread between the return on investment and this indicator to widen again. Extraordinary costs and revenue had an adverse impact on net profit, triggering a notable decline. Average debt ratios, expressed as both a percentage of assets and as a percentage of ordinary profit, continued to fall in 2019. The share of profits used to service debt also continued to decline and stands at a record low. The article contains a box analysing the recent developments in trade finance and the average supplier-payment and customer-collection periods.

  • 17/03/2020
    The EU-MERCOSUR free trade agreement: main features and economic impact (383 KB) Jacopo Timini and Francesca Viani

    This article describes the main characteristics of the trade agreement reached between the European Union (EU) and the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) in 2019 and presents estimates of its possible impact on trade and GDP in the two areas.
    It is an ambitious agreement involving the full liberalisation of almost all of the goods trade between the two blocs, facilitating the provision of services and the reduction of non-tariff barriers, and envisaging reciprocal liberalisation of public procurement. Similarly, it includes provisions on the protection of the environment and workers’ rights.
    The agreement’s estimated effects on trade and economic activity will be significant for MERCOSUR. The impact for the EU will be more modest, yet always positive, since trade with MERCOSUR is less significant for EU members. Spain is among the EU member countries whose economies will benefit most from the agreement.

  • 05/03/2020
    Population at risk of poverty or social exclusion in Spain, according to the European Council definition (215 KB) Aitor Lacuesta and Brindusa Anghel

    This article describes the concept of population at risk of poverty or social exclusion that is used to quantify the targets set in this respect for the countries of the European Union. Drawing on this definition, the article analyses how poverty in Spain has evolved. It also examines the factors that have contributed to poverty levels in Spain still being above the official targets for 2020 and the average of the rest of the countries of the European Union. Lastly, some aspects of the definition are identified that suggest that the concept of economic poverty should be addressed from several complementary standpoints.

  • 20/02/2020
    Recent developments in financing and bank lending to the non-financial private sector 2019 H2 (568 KB) Pana Alves, Fabián Arrizabalaga, Javier Delgado and Alejandro Ferrer

    In the final stretch of 2019, the funds raised by households and non-financial corporations grew at very moderate rates, somewhat below those recorded in the first half of the year. This occurred against a setting of weak demand for funds, in which credit standards for bank loans had tightened slightly, although the cost of credit declined again, in keeping with the more accommodative monetary policy stance. Deposit institutions’ loan portfolios continued to contract, albeit at a more moderate pace, while their average quality improved, with further reductions in the NPL ratio and in foreclosed assets.

  • 18/02/2020
    Impact of new technologies on financial inclusion (363 KB) Esther Barruetabeña

    Advances in new technologies give millions of people who experience financial exclusion globally the opportunity to access and use financial services. This article describes the main benefits of financial innovation, particularly in emerging economies. It also identifies the main challenges associated with financial innovation, including the potential effects of digitalisation on financial exclusion, and possible ways to address these.

  • 13/02/2020
    The end of the demographic dividend in Latin America: challenges for economic and social policies (478 KB) Juan Carlos Berganza, Rodolfo Campos, Enrique Martínez Casillas and Javier Pérez

    Population ageing is a major global challenge. The Latin American economies have a younger population structure than other emerging and advanced economies, which has allowed them to enjoy the so-called demographic dividend (a favourable working age/non-working age population ratio). However, according to the latest demographic projections of the United Nations (UN), it is estimated that in 2020 the Latin American population pyramid will resemble that of the advanced economies in 1990 and that, by around 2050, both groups will have similar population profiles. This article documents the current demographic trends in Latin America and discusses the main related challenges, in particular, those arising from the adaptation of social welfare systems to population ageing.

  • 11/02/2020
    The relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies (305 KB) Luis J. Álvarez, Ana Gómez Loscos and M.ª Dolores Gadea

    This article analyses the link between the changes in and the drivers of inflation in a broad range of advanced economies, with special emphasis on those of the euro area. Inflation rates are seen to be highly synchronised across countries, especially in the euro area economies, reflecting their close economic and financial links and the common monetary policy. Also, the comovement of inflation is found to be a phenomenon that tends to be more visible in the medium and long-term. At the same time, the synchronisation of core inflation, which is based on products with more stable prices, is seen to be limited. The interdependence of headline inflation, by contrast, is significantly higher and has increased considerably in recent years. The drivers of inflation, according to New Keynesian Phillips curve models, such as inflation expectations, the cyclical position and external prices, also help to explain the relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies and especially in those of the euro area.

  • 06/02/2020
    Ageing, productivity and employment status (596 KB) Brindusa Anghel and Aitor Lacuesta

    The article analyses how labour market participation and the type of work performed change with age. Drawing on data from the OECD’s Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), it is documented that as people age they gradually lose certain skills relating to their ability to do physical work or use new technologies, or their literacy and numeracy skills. By contrast, as they build up experience, older workers develop better planning skills and a greater ability to supervise the work of others and respond to setbacks. However, the transition between these tasks is not problem-free, especially in certain sectors, such as agriculture, small retail trade, hotels and restaurants and domestic help, which in Spain are more likely to have a higher concentration of older workers with a lower level of education than in the rest of the euro area. In this respect, larger firm size, flexible working environments, retirement schemes with certain specificities relating to skills required in different occupations and an increase in continuing training would all be conducive to a lower decline in productivity and a higher degree of employability of older workers. This is particularly important in Spain’s current demographic context of a gradually ageing population.

  • 21/01/2020
    January 2020 Bank lending survey in Spain (547 KB) Álvaro Menéndez Pujadas

    According to the Bank Lending Survey, during 2019 Q4, credit standards tightened slightly for all categories of lending in Spain, whereas this only affected consumer credit and other lending to households in the euro area. In this segment, the general terms and conditions on new lending eased, both in Spain and in the euro area as a whole. Furthermore, in Spain, the terms and conditions on loans to households for house purchase tightened slightly. Demand for all types of credit in Spain decreased, whereas in the euro area as a whole loan applications from enterprises declined and those from households increased. According to the responding banks, regulatory and supervisory actions on capital, leverage and liquidity had a negligible impact on credit supply in Spain in the second half of 2019, whereas they prompted a slight tightening in the euro area. The NPL ratio contributed to a tightening of credit standards (in consumer credit in Spain and in the other two segments in the euro area). Lastly, as for the ECB’s TLTRO III (the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations), the banks’ participation in the September operation was limited and increased significantly in the December operation, as they were essentially attracted by the favourable conditions of this funding.

Contact Us

Information Management and Dissemination Unit

Related Information

Publications Search