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Occasional Papers

The Occasional Papers series seeks to disseminate the work carried out by the Banco de España within its sphere of competence that is considered to be of general interest for knowledge of the functioning of the Spanish economy and of its international environment.

The opinions and analyses published in the Occasional Papers are the responsibility of the authors and are not necessarily shared by the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

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  • 17/11/2015
    1504. La demanda potencial de vivienda principal (1 MB) María de los Llanos Matea

    The paper uses the headship rate method to draw up various scenarios of net household formation and, by extension, of the demand for primary dwellings in Spain to 2029. INE’s Household Projection is taken as a baseline scenario and different scenarios are prepared, under different assumptions about the pace of household formation and immigrant inflows. All the scenarios present a potential demand for dwellings far removed from the figure of 427,000 recorded between 2002 and 2008, placing the range between 63,000 and 236,000 dwellings per year.

  • 01/12/2015
    1503. Employment, wage and price reactions to the crisis in Spain: Firm-level evidence from the WDN survey (514 KB) Mario Izquierdo and Juan Francisco Jimeno

    This paper describes the main results from the third wave of the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) survey. Its main goal is to provide information on demand, finance conditions and other factors determining economic activity, on wage, price and employment adjustments over the period 2010-2013, and on firms’ perceptions of institutional changes in the labour market. In Spain, the survey was conducted at the end of 2014, collecting information from a representative sample of 1,975 Spanish firms covering manufacturing, energy and market services sectors. The main results show that Spanish firms’ adjustment to falling demand and other negative conditions since 2010 relied heavily on the dismissal of employees under temporary contracts, although those firms most affected by the crisis also significantly reduced permanent employment. On the contrary, wage and hours adjustments remained limited even in those firms most severely affected by the negative shocks. Regarding institutional changes, Spanish firms perceive some easing in the conditions for economic layoffs, attributing the main source of this higher flexibility to legal changes since 2010. As to other labour conditions, including wages and hours, the share of firms perceiving higher flexibility is somewhat lower.

  • 06/11/2015
    1502. La tasa de actividad en España: resistencia cíclica, determinantes y perspectivas futuras (536 KB) José Manuel Montero and Ana Regil

    The cyclical resilience of the labour force has been one of the most notable features of the Spanish labour market during the latest economic crisis, despite the depth and duration of the recession, and in contrast to its performance in previous recessionary periods. The behaviour of labour supply has been driven by the favourable trend of the aggregate participation rate. Thus, this paper firstly analyses the cyclical performance of the participation rate over time using data from the Labour Force Survey for different demographic groups (by sex, nationality, age and educational attainment). The analysis reveals that the lower cyclical sensitivity during the latest downturn was driven by the stronger relative performance of labour force participation by Spanish women, highly educated workers and middle-aged and older people.

     

    In the second part of the paper, we estimate an empirical relationship between the participation rate, broken down into sex and nationality, and some of its main determinants identified in the literature. The ensuing estimation results will serve as a basis for conducting a projection exercise for the aggregate participation rate over a 10-year horizon. Overall, our results show that factors such as educational attainment, the fertility rate, the minimum wage, the pension system or the unemployment insurance system all prove relevant for labour participation decisions by individuals. The future course of these variables can help mitigate the negative impact on the labour supply arising from the expected population ageing in Spain.

  • 19/02/2015
    1501. Extraordinary mechanisms for payment of general government suppliers in Spain (450 KB) Mar Delgado Téllez, Pablo Hernández de Cos, Samuel Hurtado and Javier J. Pérez

    The economic crisis was initially associated with an increase in regional and local government payment periods and trade debt. Since 2012, central government has approved various extraordinary mechanisms for the payment of local and regional government suppliers that have significantly reduced the stock of trade debt and the average supplier-payment periods attributable to these levels of government. Successive plans have helped unblock payments and channel funds of close to €67 billion towards the private sector in somewhat less than three years. And against a background of economic weakness, fiscal consolidation and difficult conditions of access to lending, it is believed this has provided a considerable impetus to activity that has helped mitigate some of the adverse effects of the economic crisis. In parallel, the roll-out of the plan has entailed a substantial increase in local and regional government debt vis-à-vis the State. To prevent inappropriate incentives for the conduct of local and regional government from arising, the funding mechanisms agreed on require compliance with certain adjustment plans.

    There is a Spanish version of this edition with the same number

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