Occasional Papers

The Occasional Papers series seeks to disseminate the work carried out by the Banco de España within its sphere of competence that is considered to be of general interest for knowledge of the functioning of the Spanish economy and of its international environment.

The opinions and analyses published in the Occasional Papers are the responsibility of the authors and are not necessarily shared by the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

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  • 22/12/2009
    0905. Una actualización de las funciones de exportación e importación de la economía española (1 MB) Coral García, Esther Gordo, Jaime Martínez-Martín, Patrocinio Tello

    Durante las últimas décadas las relaciones comerciales de España con el exterior han registrado un impulso notable, que en un primer momento estuvo ligado a la integración en los mercados europeos y más recientemente, al proceso de globalización mundial, en el que la incorporación a la escena internacional de grandes exportadores -China o India- y el desarrollo del comercio internacional de servicios han sido claves. Estos cambios hacen especialmente complicado el análisis los principales factores que han condicionado la evolución de los flujos comerciales en España mediante la estimación de modelos econométricos, ya que estos difícilmente pueden recoger las particularidades del largo periodo considerado. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar los resultados que se han obtenido al re-estimar las funciones tradicionales de demanda de exportaciones e importaciones de bienes y servicios para la economía española con los datos trimestrales de la contabilidad nacional para el período 1980-2006, distinguiendo entre bienes y servicios. Además, dentro de los bienes se consideran las exportaciones e importaciones destinadas o procedentes del área del euro, por un lado, y del resto del mundo, por otro, con la intención de comprobar si los determinantes de los flujos de comercio difieren en función de los mercados donde se intercambian los bienes. Las ecuaciones estimadas permiten identificar si se han producido cambios en los determinantes tradicionales de las flujos comerciales con el exterior y como han contribuido a explicar su evolución a en el periodo 1980-2008.

  • 07/10/2009
    0904. The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation (831 KB) Luis J. Álvarez, Samuel Hurtado, Isabel Sánchez, Carlos Thomas

    This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation variability. The impact on Spanish inflation is found to be somewhat higher than in the euro area. Direct effects are increasing over time, reflecting the higher spending of households on refined oil products, whereas indirect ones, defined in broad terms, are losing importance.

  • 16/03/2009
    0903. Employment generation by small firms in Spain (888 KB) Paloma López-García, Sergio Puente y Ángel Luis Gómez

    Despite the relevance in terms of policy, we still know little in Spain about where and by whom jobs are created, and how that is affecting the size distribution of firms. The main innovation of this paper is to use a rich database that overcomes the problems encountered by other firm-level studies to shed some light on the employment generation of small firms in Spain. We find that small firms contribute to employment disproportionately across all sectors of the economy although the difference between their employment and job creation share is largest in the manufacturing sector. The job creators in that sector are both new and established firms whereas only new small firms outperform their larger counterparts in the service sector. The large annual job creation of the small firm size class is shifting the firm size distribution towards the very small production units, although not uniformly across industries of different technology intensity.

  • 14/03/2009
    0902. Oil prices and their effect on potential output (580 KB) Ángel Estrada y Pablo Hernández de Cos

    Oil prices have fluctuated considerably in the last few years, with major effects on the economy. This paper describes some of the mechanisms by which these fluctuations produce changes in the long run growth of the economy. In particular, it analyses the effect on productivity, capital stock and structural unemployment. The analysis suggests that a (permanent) increase in oil prices can significantly reduce potential output. From an economic policy point of view, this effect may be more marked when competition in the product markets is low or when wage indexation is high; thus, reforms aiming to increase competition and improve wage setting mechanisms help to reduce the negative effects of higher oil prices on long run economic growth.

    The original Spanish version has the same number

  • 13/03/2009
    0901. The Spanish economy in EMU: The first ten years (615 KB) Á. Estrada, J. F. Jimeno y J. L. Malo de Molina

    This paper has been prepared to mark the tenth anniversary of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It seeks to give an overview of the Spanish economy’s experience in this new institutional setting. It should be viewed as the result of a joint effort by a sizeable group of researchers from the Banco de España Directorate General Economics, Statistics and Research to rationalise the implications of a structural change on this scale. To do this, the paper firstly defines the starting conditions of the Spanish economy, at the time when there was only a commitment to join the Monetary Union as a founding member; in this connection, it sets out the advantages of belonging to the euro area versus the possibility of having remained outside it. Next, it describes the main transformations made in converting this commitment into reality. Further, it reviews developments in the economic variables that best document the main events of the past decade, focusing both on the factors underpinning the expansion and the headway in convergence, and on the imbalances that triggered the start of the adjustment, and assesses the scope of these imbalances. Finally, it describes the basic features of the process of adjustment towards a new path of sustained economic growth, emphasising the difficulties added by the superimposition of the international financial crisis.

    The original Spanish version has the same number

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