The nature of expectations plays a crucial role in macroeconomic debates. For example, the recent housing market crashes in many countries were preceded by clear signals of overvaluation; why did these signals go unheeded so long? This conference brought together recent work that models expectations to better understand instability in financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations more generally. It also sought to evaluate this theoretical work in the light of new data on consumers' and investors' expectations.
Information
10 June 2013 - 11 June 2013
Madrid
Program ( 119 KB )
Speakers
10 June
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- 14:30h - 14:50h
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Opening Remarks
Fernando Restoy (Deputy Governor of Banco de España)
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- 14:50h - 16:00h
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Anton Nakov (Banco de España) and Galo Nuño (ECB)
"Bayesian Foundations of Constant-Gain Learning"
(426 KB)Comments: Christian Matthes
(114 KB) (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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- 16:00h - 17:10h
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Krisztina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics) and Zoltan Reppa (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
"Economic Stability and the Responsiveness of Inflation Expectations”
Comments: Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)
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- 17:40h - 18:50h
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G. Ferrero (Banca d’Italia), M. Miccoli (Banca d’Italia) and Sergio Santoro (Banca d’Italia)
"Informational Effects of Monetary Policy"
(331 KB)Comments: James Costain (Banco de España)
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- 18:50h - 20:00h
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Tiziana Assenza (Catholic University of Milan), Peter Heemeijer (University of Amsterdam and ABN AMRO), Cars Hommes (University of Amsterdam) and Domenico Massaro (University of Amsterdam)
"Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior”
Comments: Ernesto Villanueva (Banco de España)
11 June
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- 09:00h - 10:10h
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Jess Benhabib (New York University), George Evans (University of Oregon) and Seppo Honkapohjia (Bank of Finland)
“Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?”
(347 KB)Comments: Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)
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- 10:10h - 11:20h
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Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim) and Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico)
“Booms and Busts in Asset Prices”
(376 KB)Comments: Henrique Basso (Banco de España)
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- 11:40h - 13:00h
- Noah Williams (University of Wisconsin)
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- 13:00h - 13:50h
- Olympia Bover (Banco de España)
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- 15:00h - 16:10h
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Ricardo Nunes (Federal Reserve Board)
“Do Central Bank´s Forecasts Take into Account Public Opinion and Public Views?”
(111 KB)Comments: Carlos Thomas
(55 KB) (Banco de España)
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- 16:10h - 17:20h
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George Evans (University of Oregon) and Bruce McGough (Oregon State University)
“Learning to Optimize”
(274 KB)Comments: Krizstina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics)
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- 17:40h - 19:00h
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Panel Discussion
Juan F. Jimeno (Banco de España), Albert Marcet (Instituto de Análisis Económico), David Vestin (Sveriges Riksbank), Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland)