A map to guide our research: The Banco de España’s Analysis Priorities for 2025-30

Rigorous analysis and high-quality research are key to enabling firms and institutions to make informed, fact-based decisions. This principle has long been a cornerstone of the Banco de España’s work, establishing us as a benchmark in economic analysis and research in Spain and abroad. To effectively organise analytical work, it helps to take a long-term view now and again to identify and prioritise relevant topics for both now and the medium term. Doing so allows us to better address current issues while also being able to adapt and respond swiftly to new challenges. This is particularly crucial in a world undergoing profound and rapid change. To this end, we have just published the Analysis Priorities for 2025-30. What do we want to analyse? How are we going to do it? To what ends? Read on to find out more.

The Banco de España has long stood as a benchmark for high-quality economic analysis and research, which help us fulfil our functions and make informed decisions within our remit.

The analysis and research undertaken at the Banco de España underpin the decisions we take in performing our functions

To structure and frame our analysis and research work, we carried out a medium-term reflection exercise and incorporated the findings in the Analysis Priorities for 2025-30. This exercise allowed us to identify the most relevant topics and focus areas to ensure we remain aligned with our economic, financial and geopolitical environment – one that has shifted dramatically since our previous priorities for 2020-24, which were themselves updated several times along the way.

To prepare the new priorities, several renowned experts and academics, along with economic policy leaders, took part in the internal debate and discussion in the course of several feedback meetings.

So what are our analysis priorities?

We have identified four interrelated broad thematic areas, which are set out in Figure 1:

• Pillars of central banking, which covers topics relating to the Banco de España’s functions, both as Spain’s central bank and as a member of the Eurosystem. The analyses and research will provide input for the Banco de España’s various functions and activities, such as contributing to deciding European Central Bank monetary policy, regulating and supervising banks (including supervision of their conduct), macroprudential policy, payment methods and systems (including cash) and financial education.
• European resilience in a changing world. In recent years, the global economy has shifted: pandemics and wars have broken out, the long-standing economic blocs have fragmented and the international cooperation framework faces a multitude of challenges. In this context, the European Union is revising its policies in areas such as industry, trade, and security and defence. Furthermore, these challenges are accompanied by profound economic changes such as digitalisation, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the green and energy transitions. Analysing this range of issues is a priority for us, and we are also paying close attention to the Latin American economies owing to our close relationship with them.
• Challenges facing the Spanish economy, in addition to the above. Notable among these are issues related to productivity and innovation, the labour market, the housing market, demographic and migratory challenges and the sustainability of public finances.
• Global trends: issues that are not strictly economic nevertheless affect the economy’s performance, directly or indirectly. This thematic area will offer complementary insights into the economic and financial impacts of climate change, ageing, institutional quality and the economic consequences of trade fragmentation, among others, through the lens of various disciplines, such as demography, political economy and political science.

More detail about the projects envisaged in each area can be found in the published document.

Figure 1
BANCO DE ESPAÑA ANALYSIS PRIORITIES 2025-30: FOUR THEMATIC AREAS (click on the buttons for more details)

SOURCE: Banco de España.

How are we analysing these topics?

It’s not just the economy and the subjects of analysis that have changed: the tools, the data and the way research is carried out have also evolved, and we need to keep up. Figure 2 shows our focus on the following key aspects:

• more emphasis on modelling. In other words, enhancing the economic models we use in our analyses, by:
  • incorporating economic uncertainty, alternative economic and financial scenarios and tail risk analysis;
  • making our analysis more robust by developing and implementing a suite of alternative models;
• using granular data to a greater extent, from both administrative sources and business and household surveys, and combining various databases;
• considering heterogeneity in every area of analysis, including the different impact of policies depending on the type of household, individual, firm, sector, etc.;
• adopting recent technological and methodological advances, such as AI and data science. For example, machine learning techniques and large language models (LLMs);
• using multidisciplinary approaches, particularly in the field of social sciences.

Figure 2
HOW CAN WE STRENGTHEN RESEARCH AT THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA? (click on the buttons for more details)

SOURCE: Banco de España.

What are the analysis priorities for?

By setting priorities for analysis and research topics serves, we aim to:

• strengthen the Banco de España’s decision-making and its ability to influence important economic debates – both domestically and internationally;
• guide analysis efforts across the various areas;.
• enhance cross-departmental collaboration as well as collaboration on these topics with academics and economic analysts.

The analysis priorities structure research across the various areas and encourage cooperation among them and with academics and economic analysts

Finally, the priorities should be updated regularly, as the economy and the challenges it faces change over time. The 2025-30 priority framework provides the necessary flexibility to adapt to what lies ahead.

David López Salido

• Director General Economics