Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth

Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth

Serie: Documentos de Trabajo. 0912.

Autor: Maximo Camacho y Gabriel Perez-Quiros.

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Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth (478 KB)

Resumen

We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn.

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