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Fiscal Sustainability, XXI Century

The Banco de España and at the Barcelona GSE are jointly organizing a Policy Week on the general topic of fiscal sustainability, and on reforms to European fiscal architecture in particular. The week begins with a policy-oriented workshop at the Banco de España, in Madrid (Monday June 6 - Wednesday June 8). This will be followed by a more theoretical workshop in Barcelona on Thursday June 9 - Friday June 10, which forms part of this year's BGSE Summer Forum.

* Indicates the presenter

Información

Ponentes

6 Junio

- 11:00h - 11:20h
- Registration and Coffee
- 11:20h - 11:30h
- Introductory remarks
- 11:30h - 12:30h
- Optimal Austerity
  *Timothy J. Kehoe (University of Minnesota)
  
  Juan Carlos Conesa (Stony Brook University)
  
  Kim J. Ruhl (NYU Stern School of Business)
  
  Discussant: Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam)
  - Optimal Austerity. Presentation (290 KB)
  - Optimal Austerity. Discussion (197 KB)
- 12:30h - 13:30h
- When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging ( 608 KB )
  *Óscar Arce(Banco de España)
  
  Javier Andrés (Universidad de Valencia)
  
  Carlos Thomas (Banco de España)
  
  Discussant: Michal Andrle (International Monetary Fund)
  - When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging. Presentation (505 KB)
  - When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging. Discussion (133 KB)
- 13:30h - 14:30h
- Lunch
- 14:30h - 15:30h
- Does austerity pay off? ( 765 KB )
  *Johannes Pfeifer (University of Manheim)
  
  Benjamin Born (University of Bonn) and Gernot J. Müller (University of Tübingen)
  
  Discussant: António Afonso (University of Lisbon)
  - Does austerity pay off?. Presentation (535 KB)
  - Does austerity pay off?. Discussion (673 KB)
- 15:30h - 16:30h
- Does the Confidence Fairy Exist? Evidence from a New Narrative Dataset on Announcements of Fiscal Austerity Measures ( 1 MB )
  *Oana Furtuna (University of Amsterdam)
  
  Roel Beetsma and Massimo Giuliodori (University of Amsterdam)
  
  Discussant: Enrique Moral Benito (Banco de España)
  - Does the Confidence Fairy Exist? Evidence from a New Narrative Dataset on Announcements of Fiscal Austerity Measures. Presentation (1 MB)
  - Does the Confidence Fairy Exist? Evidence from a New Narrative Dataset on Announcements of Fiscal Austerity Measures. Discussion (163 KB)
- 16:30h - 17:00h
- Coffee Break
- 17:00h - 18:00h
- Crisis, Austerity and Automatic Stabilization ( 334 KB )
  *Christian Wittneben (ZEW)
  
  M. Dolls, C. Fuest and A. Peichl (ZEW)
  
  Discussant: Roberto Ramos Magdaleno (Banco de España)
  - Crisis, Austerity and Automatic Stabilization. Presentation (3 MB)
  - Crisis, Austerity and Automatic Stabilization. Discussion (201 KB)
- 18:00h - 19:00h
- Budget-neutral Fiscal Rules Targeting Inflation Differentials ( 354 KB )
  *Maren Brede (Humboldt University)
  
  Discussant: Dmitry Matveev (University of Mannheim)
  - Budget-neutral Fiscal Rules Targeting Inflation Differentials. Presentation (610 KB)
  - Budget-neutral Fiscal Rules Targeting Inflation Differentials. Discussion (50 KB)
- 19:00h - 20:00h
- KEYNOTE ADDRESS
  
  Athanasios Orphanides (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
  
  Athanasios Orphanides. Presentation (396 KB)

7 Junio

- 09:00h - 10:00h
- When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules? ( 424 KB )
  *Wolf Heinrich Reuter (Staff of the German Council of Economic Experts)
  
  Discussant: Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España)
  - When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?. Presentation (568 KB)
  - When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?. Discussion (442 KB)
- 10:00h - 11:00h
- How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Real-time evidence based on IMF data ( 1 MB )
  *Maritta Paloviita (Bank of Finland)
  
  Pasi Ikonen (Bank of Finland)
  
  Discussant: Enrique Martín Quilis (AIReF)
  - How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Real-time evidence based on IMF data. Presentation (1 MB)
  - How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Real-time evidence based on IMF data. Discussion (897 KB)
- 11:00h - 11:30h
- Coffee Break
- 11:30h - 12:30h
- Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline? ( 811 KB )
  *Victor Duarte Lledo (International Monetary Fund)
  
  Ananya Kotia (University of Oxford)
  
  Discussant: Carlos Cuerpo (AIReF)
  - Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline?. Presentation (824 KB)
  - Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline?. Discussion (2 MB)
- 12:30h - 13:30h
- Optimal Mechanisms for the Control of Fiscal Deficits ( 284 KB )
  *Hans Peter Grüner (University of Mannheim )
  
  Discussant: Antoine Loeper (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
  - Optimal Mechanisms for the Control of Fiscal Deficits. Discussion (49 KB)
- 13:30h - 14:30h
- Lunch
- 14:30h - 16:30h
- PANEL
  - Agnes Benassy (Chair, Council of Economic Advisors, France)
  - Robert Chote (Chair, Office of Budget Responsibility, UK)
  - João Nogueira Martins (Economic Advisor to President Donald Tusk)
  - Torsten Arnswald (Head of Fiscal Policy Division, Ministry of Finance, Germany)
  - Juan Rojas (Head of Economic and Market Analysis, European Stability Mechanism)
  Moderator: Pablo Hernández de Cos (Director General, DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España)
- 16:30h - 17:00h
- Coffee Break
- 17:00h - 18:00h
- Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium ( 3 MB )
  * Leonardo Martínez (IMF)
  J. C. Hatchondo (Indiana University)
  F. Roch (IMF)
  
  Discussant: Alberto Martín (CREI, UPF and Barcelona GSE)
  - Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium. Presentation (3 MB)
  - Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium. Discussion (206 KB)
- 18:00h - 19:00h
- Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default ( 760 KB )
  *Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School)
  Fabio Kanczuk (Universidade de São Paulo)
  
  Discussant: Hernán Daniel Seoane (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
  - Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default. Presentation (1 MB)
  - Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default. Discussion (110 KB)
- 19:00h - 20:00h
- On the Risk of Leaving the Euro
  *Albert Marcet (Institut d’Anàlisi Econòmica, CSIC)
  Juan Pablo Nicolini (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
  Manuel Macera (Colorado State University)
  
  Discussant: Luca Onorante (Central Bank of Ireland).
  - On the Risk of Leaving the Euro. Presentation (490 KB)
  - On the Risk of Leaving the Euro. Discussion (321 KB)
- 21:00h - 23:59h
- Dinner (invitation only)

8 Junio

- 09:00h - 10:00h
- Monetary Conservatism and Sovereign Default ( 605 KB )
  *Joost Roettger (University of Cologne)
  
  Discussant: Galo Nuño (Banco de España)
  - Monetary Conservatism and Sovereign Default. Presentation (170 KB)
  - Monetary Conservatism and Sovereign Default. Discussion (123 KB)
- 10:00h - 11:00h
- Fiscal delegation in a monetary union: Instrument assignment and stabilization properties ( 647 KB )
  *Henrique Basso (Banco de España)
  James Costain (Banco de España)
  
  Discussant: Luisa Lambertini (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne)
  - Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium. Presentation (455 KB)
  - Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium. Discussion (83 KB)
- 11:00h - 11:30h
- Coffee Break
- 11:30h - 12:30h
- Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability? ( 939 KB )
  *Tamon Asonuma (International Monetary Fund)
  Said Bakhache (IMF)
  Heiko Hesse (IMF)
  
  Discussant: Omar Rachedi (Banco de España)
  - Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?. Presentation (1 MB)
  - Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?. Discussion (119 KB)
- 12:30h - 13:30h
- Sovereign Risk and Fiscal (In)Attention: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s ( 296 KB )
  *Huixin Bi (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
  Nora Traum (North Carolina State University)
  
  Discussant: Peter Claeys (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)
  - Sovereign Risk and Fiscal (In)Attention: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s. Discussion (894 KB)
- 13:30h - 14:30h
- KEYNOTE ADDRESS
  
  Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania)
  Pablo D’Erasmo (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
  Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
  
  Enrique G. Mendoza. Presentation (1 MB)

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