Serie: Documentos de Trabajo. 0928.
Autor: Max Gillman; Anton Nakov.
Temas: Métodos cuantitativos | Mercados financieros | Economía Internacional | Situación económica | Tipos de cambio.
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Resumen
The paper presents a theory of nominal asset prices for competitively owned oil. Focusing on monetary effects, with flexible oil prices the US dollar oil price should follow the aggregate US price level. But with rigid nominal oil prices, the nominal oil price jumps proportionally to nominal interest rate increases. We find evidence for structural breaks in the nominal oil price that are used to illustrate the theory of oil price jumps. The evidence also indicates strong Granger causality of the oil price by US inflation as is consistent with the theory.