Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth

Serie: Documentos de Trabajo. 0807.

Autor: Maximo Camacho y Gabriel Perez-Quiros.

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Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth (701 KB)

Resumen

We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty.