Series: Working Papers. 0807.
Author: Maximo Camacho y Gabriel Perez-Quiros.
Topics: Economic growth and convergence | Quantitative methods | Inequality | Non-financial corporations, businesses | Macroeconomic projections.
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Abstract
We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty.