Series: Working Papers. 0307.
Author: Jorge Martínez Pagés and Luis Ángel Maza.
Topics: Housing and real estate market | Household finances | Business investment | Credit | Interest rates.
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Abstract
House prices in Spain have shown one of the biggest cumulative growth rates among the OECD countries over the past five years and, indeed, over a more extensive period. This paper focuses on analysing this development and its possible determinants. The evidence provided suggests income and nominal interest rates are pivotal explanatory factors, although equity returns may also have been influential in the final years of the sample. According to the estimated models, house prices are currently above their long-term equilibrium level by an amount not unlike other times in the past. Therefore, something of a correction –of an intensity difficult to estimate but not necessarily sharper than in past episodes– may be expected in the future.