Series: Occasional Papers. 2206.
Author: Eduardo Gutiérrez, Enrique Moral-Benito and Roberto Ramos.
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Abstract
The year 2020 was marked by net migration dynamics in Spain that resulted in an increase in the rural population at the expense of the urban population, interrupting the secular trend towards greater urbanisation prevailing since the middle of the last century. According to the findings of this paper, the demographic momentum of rural areas was attributable both to higher population inflows from elsewhere in the country and, in particular, to a slowdown in outflows from rural areas. In addition, a regression analysis shows that the demographic dynamics during the rural exodus (1950-1990), the percentage of second homes and accessibility to services, both physical and digital, are explanatory factors when characterising municipal-level population changes during the pandemic. 2020 represents a unique period, marked by strict restrictions on movement and on activity, along with stringent social distancing measures. This setting, along with the modest levels of remote working, raise significant doubts and uncertainty as to the extent to which the slowdown in urbanisation observed in that year will continue over a longer time horizon.