An analysis of the impact of the rise in the national minimum wage in 2017 on the probability of job loss
Series: Occasional Papers. 1902.
Author: Aitor Lacuesta, Mario Izquierdo and Sergio Puente.
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Abstract
This article analyses the rise in the national minimum wage (NMW) in 2017 in Spain, drawing on information provided by the Social Security administrative labour records (MCVL). The results suggest this rise may have had an adverse effect on the probability of the group of workers with wages below the new minimum wage keeping their jobs. This effect would be of particular importance for older workers. The rise approved for the NMW in 2019 is far higher than those observed in the past, which considerably increases the number of workers affected and the uncertainty surrounding the adverse effects on the probability of them keeping their jobs. According to the estimates presented in this article, these negative effects could be significant.