Series: Occasional Papers. 1811.
Author: Jorge Martínez.
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Abstract
This document presents a tool, available at the Banco de España, for forecasting General
government interest payments in Spain. Contrary to some models, which are very detailed
and take into account the specific characteristics and dates of every individual debt
instrument issued by the government, the tool presented here aggregates as much as
possible, for simplicity reasons, but without losing forecasting capacity, as it is shown in the
document. Also, the explanatory variables and the accounting approach used are chosen
to be consistent with the regular macroeconomic projection exercises of the Banco de
España, of which they are part.