Series: Working Papers. 2515.
Author: Rodolfo G. Campos and Jacopo Timini
European Union
- International trade
- International cooperation
- Quantitative methods
Published online in Review of World Economics, August 2025.
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Abstract
This paper examines the effects of trade bloc enlargement, focusing on simultaneous country entries. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we identify three driving forces behind changes in trade flows and welfare gains: i) reduced bilateral trade costs between candidates and current members, ii) candidates adopting the bloc’s trade policy towards outsiders, and iii) reduced trade costs among candidates. Our findings highlight the substantial impact of the third force, which may account for at least a third of the welfare gains for candidates, sometimes exceeding the other two forces combined.