Series: Working Papers. 1241.
Author: Matteo Ciccarelli , Eva Ortega Eslava and Maria Teresa Valderrama
Economic growth and convergence
- Quantitative methods
- International Economy
- Credit
Published as: “Commonalities and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages”. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016. Vol. 16(1), pp. 231–275
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Abstract
We investigate heterogeneity and spillovers in macro-financial linkages across developed economies, with a particular emphasis on the most recent recession. A panel Bayesian VAR model including real and financial variables identifies a statistically significant common component, which proves to be very significant during the most recent recession. Nevertheless, country-specific factors remain important, which explains the heterogeneous behaviour across countries observed over time. Moreover, spillovers across countries and between real and financial variables are found to matter: a shock to a variable in a given country affects all other countries, and the transmission seems to be faster and deeper between financial variables than between real variables. Finally, shocks spill over in a heterogeneous way across countries.