From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes
Series: Working Papers. 2004.
Author: Henrique S. Basso and Juan F. Jimeno.
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics, volume 117, January 2021, pages 833-847
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Abstract
Demographic change and automation are two main structural trends shaping the
macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with
a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission
mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to
a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing
lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During the
demographic transition, the extent growth and factor shares are affected depends on
alternative labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots
in economic activity.