Publications

International economy

From this page you can access thematically grouped Analytical Articles published in the Economic Bulletin from 1999, ordered by date of dissemination within each year.

All documents are available in PDF format PDF File. Opens in a new window

  • 17/03/2020
    The EU-MERCOSUR free trade agreement: main features and economic impact (383 KB) Jacopo Timini and Francesca Viani

    This article describes the main characteristics of the trade agreement reached between the European Union (EU) and the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) in 2019 and presents estimates of its possible impact on trade and GDP in the two areas.
    It is an ambitious agreement involving the full liberalisation of almost all of the goods trade between the two blocs, facilitating the provision of services and the reduction of non-tariff barriers, and envisaging reciprocal liberalisation of public procurement. Similarly, it includes provisions on the protection of the environment and workers’ rights.
    The agreement’s estimated effects on trade and economic activity will be significant for MERCOSUR. The impact for the EU will be more modest, yet always positive, since trade with MERCOSUR is less significant for EU members. Spain is among the EU member countries whose economies will benefit most from the agreement.

  • 13/02/2020
    The end of the demographic dividend in Latin America: challenges for economic and social policies (478 KB) Juan Carlos Berganza, Rodolfo Campos, Enrique Martínez Casillas and Javier Pérez

    Population ageing is a major global challenge. The Latin American economies have a younger population structure than other emerging and advanced economies, which has allowed them to enjoy the so-called demographic dividend (a favourable working age/non-working age population ratio). However, according to the latest demographic projections of the United Nations (UN), it is estimated that in 2020 the Latin American population pyramid will resemble that of the advanced economies in 1990 and that, by around 2050, both groups will have similar population profiles. This article documents the current demographic trends in Latin America and discusses the main related challenges, in particular, those arising from the adaptation of social welfare systems to population ageing.

  • 11/02/2020
    The relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies (305 KB) Luis J. Álvarez, Ana Gómez Loscos and M.ª Dolores Gadea

    This article analyses the link between the changes in and the drivers of inflation in a broad range of advanced economies, with special emphasis on those of the euro area. Inflation rates are seen to be highly synchronised across countries, especially in the euro area economies, reflecting their close economic and financial links and the common monetary policy. Also, the comovement of inflation is found to be a phenomenon that tends to be more visible in the medium and long-term. At the same time, the synchronisation of core inflation, which is based on products with more stable prices, is seen to be limited. The interdependence of headline inflation, by contrast, is significantly higher and has increased considerably in recent years. The drivers of inflation, according to New Keynesian Phillips curve models, such as inflation expectations, the cyclical position and external prices, also help to explain the relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies and especially in those of the euro area.

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