Publications

In the current global setting of rising food prices and growing food insecurity, this article analyses how food crises affect forced international migration. According to the results obtained from a structural gravity model, food crises lead to a significant increase in the number of forced international migrants, although the intensity of the effect depends on the severity of the crisis. Thus, mild crises trigger a higher increase in the number of international migrants, but this effect eases as they become more severe. Further, when faced by more severe crises, international migrants are more likely to head for developing countries. This is because food crises prompt migrants to use more of their resources to cover their basic food needs, limiting their ability to migrate, especially to destinations that entail higher costs such as developed countries.

A hypothetical interruption of energy commodity imports from Russia could significantly affect the Spanish economy. The difficulty of replacing these products in the short term would reduce the energy supply and compound the current inflationary episode, both of which would weigh on economic activity. However, since Spain is less energy dependent on Russia than other European economies, the effects on the Spanish economy would be notably smaller. Lastly, the impact would be amplified due to the shock propagating through global production chains, with a particularly marked effect on certain sectors of activity. The interruption of exports or imports of other goods would also adversely affect the European economies, although it would have a more limited impact than in the case of energy commodities.

In 2019 the European Union (EU) and the Latin American countries that make up the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) reached a political agreement to sign, ratify and implement a trade agreement between the two blocs. This agreement is expected to bring trade and welfare benefits on both sides of the Atlantic. The impact estimated for the EU will be similar to that of other recent agreements, such as that entered into with Japan. However, the EU-Mercosur “agreement in principle” has raised concerns owing to its potential impact on the environment and climate, even though it includes strict provisions in these areas and entails very few changes to the tariff and non-tariff measures adopted for agricultural imports from Mercosur. This article focuses on a specific aspect of the EU-Mercosur agreement’s potential environmental impact, namely, the change envisaged in global CO2 emissions. Despite the uncertainty associated with such estimations, when using a standard general equilibrium model, the increase in CO2 emissions deriving from this agreement is found to be limited. Moreover, in certain plausible scenarios, application of the very stringent environmental standards provided for in the agreement in principle could even lower emissions in Mercosur countries.